Third phase of UP Lok Sabha elections: Shifting focus to Yadav strongholds

Lucknow: As the Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh progress into the third phase, attention shifts from the Jat belt observed in the initial stages to the influential Yadav land. This phase encompasses 10 crucial constituencies, where the intricate Yadav-Muslim equations are set to undergo scrutiny.

The 10 Lok Sabha constituencies slated for polling in this phase include Sambhal, Hathras, Agra, Fatehpur Sikri, Firozabad, Mainpuri, Etah, Budaun, Aonla, and Bareilly, surpassing the eight seats contested in the first two phases.

The BJP has historically maintained a dominant presence in Uttar Pradesh’s electoral landscape, riding on the wave of Narendra Modi’s popularity. In 2014, the party secured victories in seven out of the 10 seats, further expanding its tally to eight in 2019. However, exceptions in their sweep include Sambhal and Mainpuri in 2019, and Mainpuri, Badaun, and Firozabad in 2014, all secured by the Samajwadi Party (SP).

The third phase unfolds with the emergence of Other Backward Classes (OBCs), prominently including Yadavs, Lodhs, and Kachhi/Shakya/Murao communities, exerting influence as decisive factors across various constituencies. Alongside, the enduring impact of Muslim and Jat demographics remains significant in select areas.

Profile of Constituencies:

Sambhal: An old Yadav stronghold, Sambhal sent SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav to the Lok Sabha twice in 1998 and 1999 and another SP veteran Ram Gopal Yadav once in 2004. The BSP won the seat twice in 1996 and 2009. The lotus here blossomed only once in 2014 while the Congress last won this seat in 1984.

Hathras: A bastion for the BJP since 1991, Hathras, a Scheduled Caste reserved seat, has seen uninterrupted victories for the party. The SP and BSP have struggled to make inroads here. In 2009, the RLD won this seat as a pre-poll ally of the BJP. The Congress last won here in 1971 while SP and BSP have never won. In 2019, BJP’s Rajvir Singh Diler defeated the SP’s Ramji Lal Suman.

Agra: The BJP has won this reserved seat five times since 1991, three times in a row since 2009. The BJP’s SP Baghel, Union minister of state, won the Agra seat in 2019. The BJP has repeated the same candidate this time. The SP has chosen Suresh Chandra Kardan while the BSP has fielded Pooja Amrohi.

Fatehpur Sikri: The BJP won this seat twice in 2019 and 2014 and the BSP in 2009. In 2019, the BJP’s Raj Kumar Chahar won this seat, defeating the Congress’s Raj Babbar. Chahar polled 64.23 per cent votes.

Firozabad: A part of Yadav land, this seat elected SP chief Akhilesh Yadav in 2009 and his cousin Akshay Yadav in 2014. The Congress’s Raj Babbar defeated SP’s Dimple Yadav in a by-poll in 2009. For 2024, the BJP has announced Vishwadeep Singh as its candidate while the SP has repeated Akshay Yadav.

Mainpuri: A Yadav citadel, Mainpuri sent SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav to the Lok Sabha at least five times. The SP has been winning this seat since 1996. The Congress last won here in 1984.

Etah: The BJP won here six times since 1989. In between, the SP won this seat twice. In 2009, Kalyan Singh won as an independent supported by the SP. BJP’s Rajveer Singh, son of Kalyan Singh, won this seat in 2014 and 2019.

Budaun: The SP won the Budaun seat continuously from 1996 to 2014. but it was wrested by the BJP in 2019. This time, BJP has replaced the sitting MP Sanghmitra Maurya with Durvijay Shakya. Aditya Yadav, son of Shivpal Yadav is SP candidate.

Aonla: The BJP has won this seat six times since 1989 and three times since 2009. The SP has won twice. The Congress won last in 1984. Dharmandra Kashyap (BJP), Neeraj Maurya (SP) and Abid Ali (BSP) and main contestants.

Bareilly: In Bareilly, the BJP has replaced its eight-time MP Santosh Gangwar, who continuously won from 1989 till 2019, barring in 2009 when the Congress’ Praveen Aron defeated him by a thin margin. Chahtrapal Singh Gangwar is BJP candidate who is pitted against Praveen Aron.