NEW DELHI: Developed countries are projected to collectively emit around 3.7 giga tonnes extra carbon dioxide in 2030 against the reduction goals outlined in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, according to a new analysis released on Thursday.
This represents a 38 per cent emission overshoot, with the US, the EU, and Russia responsible for 83 per cent of this.
Emission overshoot refers to a situation where the greenhouse gas emissions released into the atmosphere exceed the targets or limits set to mitigate climate change.
The issue brief by independent think tank Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) highlights that only two developed countries - Norway and Belarus - are on track to achieve their reduction commitments by 2030.
The mitigation efforts of developed countries impact the carbon budget available to developing nations, which need sufficient carbon space to address their economic and social development challenges and ensure a just transition.
Climate science defines carbon budget as the amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted for a given level of global warming (1.5 degrees Celsius in this case).
Rich nations have already consumed more than 80 per cent of the global carbon budget, leaving countries like India with very little carbon space for the future. Currently, developed countries’ NDCs -- national plans to achieve the Paris Agreement goals -- for 2030 collectively represent a 36 per cent reduction in emissions from their 2019 levels. This is less than the 43 per cent reduction that is required to keep the 1.5 degrees Celsius target alive. Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Fellow, CEEW, said, The numbers are clear - even in this critical decade, developed countries are not projected to meet their 2030 NDC targets.