Claims of spike in poverty in India during Covid-19 patently false: Paper co-authored by Panagariya

New York: Claims of a spike in poverty and inequality in India during the Covid-19 pandemic are patently false as such claims are based on uncomparable different surveys, according to a paper co-authored by eminent economist Arvind Panagariya.

The paper also noted that inequality fell in the country during Covid years, both in rural and urban areas as well as nationally. Panagariya, Columbia University Professor and former Vice Chairman of NITI Aayog and Vishal More of Intelink Advisors, New Delhi have co-authored a detailed paper ‘Poverty and Inequality in India: Before and After Covid-19’.

The paper will be presented at a forthcoming conference on the Indian Economy at Columbia University organised by the Deepak and Neera Raj Center on Indian Economic Policy at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. The paper analyses poverty and inequality before and after the Covid-19 pandemic in India using data on household expenditures reported in the periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) conducted by the National Statistical Office (NSO) of India.

The main findings of the paper say that poverty levels derived from the periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) are not comparable to those derived from Consumer Expenditure Surveys conducted in 2011-12 and earlier due to differences in sample design. “Claims of increase in poverty in 2017-18 based on a comparison of estimates derived from the CES in 2011-12 and the PLFS in 2017-18 or later must be rejected,” the paper says. Sample designs of PLFS and CES are vastly different, it said. The findings also state that on a quarterly basis, rural poverty rose marginally in the strict lockdown quarter (April-June 2020) but fell below the pre-Covid-19 level soon after and continued to decline. On an annual basis, inequality fell during the post-Covid-19 era in both rural and urban areas and in rural and urban areas combined.