In its second forecast for the year, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday stated that it would take another four to five days for monsoon-laden winds to arrive at Kerala coast. The IMD said that the recent downpour in Kerala and other parts of the country, including Delhi, were
pre-monsoon showers.
The IMD in its first forecast in April had predicted that monsoon would hit Kerala on June 1, but as per the latest prediction it would arrive only on June 7. Making the announcement, IMD director general LS Rathore said, “The six day delay would not bring any change in the overall rainfall. The country is likely to get 106 per cent rainfall, which is above normal.”
Rathore further added that the probability of this forecast being true is 94 per cent, while there is zero per cent chance that rainfall would remain below 90 per cent of normal. The IMD also released its forecast for regional and monthly distribution of rainfall for June-September. It said the northwestern part of India, that includes Punjab, Haryana, eastern Rajasthan, western Uttar Pradesh and Delhi, would receive rainfall that was likely to be 108 per cent of normal. Central India as well as south India were expected to get 113 per cent of normal rainfall, while north-eastern India was likely to be driest, receiving only 94 per cent of normal rainfall. July and August are going to be two rainy months.
“Given that the sowing season of kharif crops starts in June and no spell of rainfall in first of the crucial month could affect sowing. The predictions are alarming,” said Rakesh Tikait, the spokesperson of Bhartiya Kisan Union. As there would be excessive rainfall, would the IMD issue any advisory to states over sowing of soyabean and other crops? Rathore said, “The IMD just responsible for issuing weather alerts. It’s for the agriculture ministry to issue directives to states in this regard.”
On the issue, Union Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh said, “You don’t have to worry about excessive rain. The ministry is capable enough to handle such extreme situations, but to the best of my knowledge, no such situation would arrive. We all must welcome the above normal rainfall, which is happening after two consecutive droughts.”