According to IMD, the country will experience above normal rainfall in the second half of the monsoon at 107 per cent of the long period average (LPA) with an error margin of 8 per cent.
“The rainfall during August is likely to see 4 per cent above the normal of the LPA as it was forecast in June, while the June to September season to have rainfall at 106 per cent of the LPA over the country with a model error of 4 per cent,” the IMD said in its long range forecast on Monday.
In June, the national forecaster had predicted that monsoon this year would be above normal with 106 per cent of LPA rainfall. A better monsoon was predicted by the IMD after two consecutive deficient monsoon years that led to drought in several parts of the country. After last year’s failed monsoon, 11 states declared drought-hit and the country faced a severe water crisis as reservoir levels became critically low.
This year during June 2016, Southwest monsoon rainfall was 11 per cent below the LPA, while the July rainfall has been 7 per cent above the LPA. A north-south belt comprising the states and meteorological sub divisions such as west Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan, Vidarbha, Marathawada, Madhya Maharashtra, north interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu have received widespread and excess rainfall during July 2016.
“It has completely wiped out the 11 per cent deficiency of June rainfall as the cumulative rainfall for first half of the monsoon season (June-July) is normal with 0 per cent departure from the LPA,” the IMD said.
Out of the last 46 years since 1970, the rainfall in July was below 100 per cent of LPA during 34 years. During the last 10 years, 2016 is the only year after 2013 and 2010, when July month rainfall has been above 100 per cent of LPA.
So far, about 90 per cent of the country has received normal to excess rainfall as sowing of kharif crops stands at 799.51 lakh hectares as compared to last year’s 752.29 lakh hectares. The excess rainfall has led to floods in several areas like Assam, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh worst affected.