The eurozone is finally set to return to growth in 2014 but the single currency bloc may not have put its crisis behind it as efforts to shore up its banks could boomerang.
After beating back market panic that the eurozone was set to break up, eurozone nations moved in 2012 and 2013 to put their finances on a stable footing and strengthen the banking sector. A new pact puts their finances under stricter control, with an obligation to cut the high debt levels seen as one of the reasons behind the crisis.
Eurozone leaders also moved to create a banking union, to reinforce lenders and reduce the likelihood wobbly banks would force countries into bailouts.
However the introduction of the banking union in 2014 risks doing the opposite as lenders are given a thorough check-up but individual eurozone countries are left on the hook for the costs of treatment.
In the hot seat will be the European Central Bank, which is conducting the in-depth reviews of the top 130 or so top eurozone banks before taking over as their supervisor at the end of 2014.
Lax supervision by national regulators has long been a concern of the market, and the ECB could well find that numerous banks are undercapitalised or even insolvent.
Top euro area banks are to generate twice as many loan losses on average in the years to come than their non-euro counterparts in places like Britain and Switzerland, according to a recent study by the research arm of Moody’s ratings agency.
As each country will have to pick up the bill separately, the ECB may find itself come under intense pressure from member states to avoid sparking a banking crisis the likes of which have already forced Ireland, Spain and Cyprus to seek bailouts. The ECB, which has been credited with rescuing the euro by calming markets, could ironically find itself unleashing the next panic if it conducts a rigorous review of banks that is widely seen as necessary for a sustainable recovery of the eurozone.
After beating back market panic that the eurozone was set to break up, eurozone nations moved in 2012 and 2013 to put their finances on a stable footing and strengthen the banking sector. A new pact puts their finances under stricter control, with an obligation to cut the high debt levels seen as one of the reasons behind the crisis.
Eurozone leaders also moved to create a banking union, to reinforce lenders and reduce the likelihood wobbly banks would force countries into bailouts.
However the introduction of the banking union in 2014 risks doing the opposite as lenders are given a thorough check-up but individual eurozone countries are left on the hook for the costs of treatment.
In the hot seat will be the European Central Bank, which is conducting the in-depth reviews of the top 130 or so top eurozone banks before taking over as their supervisor at the end of 2014.
Lax supervision by national regulators has long been a concern of the market, and the ECB could well find that numerous banks are undercapitalised or even insolvent.
Top euro area banks are to generate twice as many loan losses on average in the years to come than their non-euro counterparts in places like Britain and Switzerland, according to a recent study by the research arm of Moody’s ratings agency.
As each country will have to pick up the bill separately, the ECB may find itself come under intense pressure from member states to avoid sparking a banking crisis the likes of which have already forced Ireland, Spain and Cyprus to seek bailouts. The ECB, which has been credited with rescuing the euro by calming markets, could ironically find itself unleashing the next panic if it conducts a rigorous review of banks that is widely seen as necessary for a sustainable recovery of the eurozone.