The progress of human civilisation always comes with attached costs. The most basic of these costs is the change it brings to existing systems. While we may like to imagine that progress always leads these systems and the people attached to them to better alternatives, it is not always the case. Those who rely on the old order, those who live within it cannot be expected to always see progress as a positive change. While the Industrial Revolution forged the beginnings of the modern world, it also caused a loss of livelihoods so catastrophic that it would be a cause for global panic today. Human history has witnessed many such periods of change that spell an end to the old ways.
Now we stand at the edge of another moment of such magnitude. Indeed, it would be accurate to say we have been moving towards it for quite some time. The idea of automation and the extensive use of machines in our daily lives is no longer a distant vision of a possible future.
From a perspective of pure progress, it is easy to see this shift as an extremely positive one that will bring a permanent shift to our way of life. Just as automatisation had expedited the wheels of change that carried the Industrial Revolution, robots can create an exponential jump in productivity. Furthermore, they can eliminate jobs that are considered too menial or dangerous for humans, freeing us up to do other things presumably. Most importantly, as many claim, increased automatisation brings new jobs, jobs that somehow offset those that are lost and ultimately lead to a win-win situation for society.
The last point is the reason why there is no reasonable consensus over how many jobs have actually been lost to automatisation, particularly in the modern period. While automatisation has indeed altogether eliminated entire professions and will continue doing so (a phenomenon that is referred to as 'displacement' by economists), the oft-stated cover-up is that it provides these workers with an opportunity to find gainful employment in entirely new fields relating to the new technologies, with prompt and adequate training. Regardless, there are studies that go on all sides of this debate with no common conclusions beyond the fact that automatisation is steadily and inevitably increasing across the world in various sectors.
Now, a new World Economic Forum report has delivered a mixed reading of the developing situation. According to the report, the upcoming 'robot revolution' could create as many as 97 million new jobs worldwide. On the flip side, it would take away almost as many jobs for good. The effects of this will not likely feel like a net plus to all of society as these jobs that are being taken will not always be countered with jobs being made available in the same community. Whole communities that rely on routine or manual labour intensive jobs will be threatened. Everything from data processing to low skill manual labour will be affected. Conversely, jobs that rely on skills and roles like advising, communicating, reasoning, etc., and new technologies like the green economy and big data will see a big rise in demand. Overall, the report states that robots will replace humans in doing half of all work tasks by 2025. The report warns that unless governments stand ready with enhanced safety nets, millions upon millions will slip through the cracks, a situation that will worryingly further existing socio-economic inequalities. Countries which already lag behind in making beneficial policies may see the most traumatic shifts towards automatisation. Ultimately, retraining millions will not be an easy task and each country will adapt to the changes differently. What is unfortunate to note is that it would be easy to sell automatisation to a country as it is likely to create easily notable increases in GDP and other standards, even as its improper implementation threatens the livelihood of millions.
This does not mean that we must fear automatisation as machines taking over. Change is inevitable after all and our current systems of employment are not built to stand the test of time unchanged. What is required is an honest assessment of the risks involved and a plan to make sure that society as a whole survives change and thrives through it.