The Middle East has long been a theatre of shifting alliances, sectarian divides, and geopolitical rivalries. Among the most consequential of these has been the complex relationship between Turkey and Saudi Arabia, two Sunni regional powerhouses whose ambitions for influence have often clashed. Recent developments, however, suggest that the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria has prompted a significant recalibration of their relationship, setting the stage for a new era of cooperation that could reshape the region’s political and security landscape. Historically, the rivalry between Ankara and Riyadh has been as much ideological as it has been strategic. Turkey’s vocal support for the Muslim Brotherhood contrasted sharply with Saudi Arabia’s staunch opposition to the group, which it sees as a threat to its monarchy and a vehicle for political Islam. This ideological chasm was laid bare during the Arab Spring when Turkey-backed popular uprisings while the Saudis remained deeply wary of them. Their positions in the Syrian conflict — while seemingly aligned in backing anti-Assad factions — often diverged in their preferred proxies and approaches. The 2017 diplomatic fallout between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which saw Turkey side decisively with Doha, only deepened the divide. The brutal killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul’s Saudi consulate in 2018 marked the nadir of relations, with Turkey publicly challenging Riyadh in a way few other states dared.
Yet, in the ever-fluid world of Middle Eastern politics, even the deepest rivalries can give way to pragmatic partnerships. The lightning collapse of Assad’s regime last December and the subsequent rise of Ahmad al-Sharaa in Damascus have created a new reality, compelling Turkey and Saudi Arabia to reassess their interests. With Assad gone, both countries see a rare alignment in their goals: to stabilise Syria, prevent a resurgence of Iranian influence, and promote a Sunni-led government in Damascus that can serve as a bulwark against further regional destabilisation. This newfound convergence was vividly demonstrated in the weeks following Assad’s ouster. Syria’s new President al-Sharaa wasted no time in making Riyadh and Ankara his first international stops — a telling signal of where Damascus sees its future alliances. The personal involvement of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in US President Donald Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Syria underscores the growing weight of this partnership. Both leaders’ ability to persuade Washington — even in the face of Israeli concerns about the new Syrian leadership — highlights how far their coordination has come. Of course, this is not merely about Syria. For Turkey, stabilising Syria is essential to securing its volatile border and curbing Kurdish militancy that has found safe havens across the border. For Saudi Arabia, it is about ensuring that Syria does not revert to being a playground for Iranian influence and criminal networks like the Captagon trade. Their shared interest in containing Israel’s assertive posture in post-Assad Syria — seen in Israel’s airstrikes and threats to invade to protect the Druze minority — further cements their common cause.
The question now is whether this cooperative spirit can endure beyond the immediate exigencies of Syria’s reconstruction. History cautions against excessive optimism. The Middle East is replete with examples of temporary alliances that collapse under the weight of old animosities and new rivalries. Yet, there are promising signs that this realignment is more than a fleeting marriage of convenience. The revival of the Saudi-Turkish Coordination Council, dormant for years, suggests a broader agenda for cooperation that goes beyond Syria — encompassing trade, arms deals, and political coordination. For India, this evolving dynamic holds important lessons and potential implications. As a country with deep ties to both Turkey and Saudi Arabia — and a growing stake in the stability of the Middle East — New Delhi must remain alert to the opportunities and challenges that this rapprochement presents. A stable Syria could mean fewer disruptions in regional energy supplies and fewer refugee flows, both of which have ripple effects on global markets. At the same time, India must be mindful of how this emerging partnership might influence broader regional alignments, including ties with Iran and Israel, with whom India also shares strategic interests. Ultimately, the new chapter in Turkey-Saudi relations underscores a broader truth about the Middle East: alliances here are rarely static. Driven by shifting regional dynamics and the constant interplay of local and global interests, states like Turkey and Saudi Arabia are proving that even the deepest rivalries can yield to the demands of realpolitik — especially when the alternative is continued chaos. If this cooperation holds, it could herald a period of much-needed stability for Syria and a more balanced regional order. For the region and its many partners, that is a development well worth watching.