Not too long ago, a series of changes to the Russian constitution prompted rumours that Putin was looking to finally retire from his position at the top of Russia's ruling hierarchy. There was a widespread belief that 2024 would be Putin's last year in power, at least officially. Then a referendum was held that would allow Putin to keep ruling until 2036. Despite a fall in popularity due to Covid-related economic slowdown and allegations of vote-rigging by the opposition, the referendum was a success for Putin with 78 per cent voting yes for his extended term.
It appeared as if nothing could challenge the dominance of Putin and the continuation of his 20-year presidency. Then along came Navalny and upset the equation for Putin's continuing dominance. Alexei Navalny is an anti-corruption crusader and politician who is the leader of the opposition political party. Russia of the Future. Navalny has been a popular anti-government figure for quite some time and has been targeted for harassment and censure multiple times. But it was only in August 2020 when Navalny became prominent on the world stage when he was a victim of a nerve agent attack for which he blamed Vladimir Putin. While in a German hospital for treatment, Navalny swiftly became a truly international figure as support poured in for his movement to confront the corruption of Putin. While being condemned by the international community, Russia continued to deny official involvement in the plot to harm Navalny. So why did Putin's administration supposedly snap and finally go after Navalny in a major way at the risk of making him a martyr?
Well, there are several possible reasons. As mentioned above, Russia is going through a moment of growing public dissatisfaction over the stagnant economic and political situation. A growing number of Russians, particularly from the younger generation desire a change in leadership. It is many of these same youth that forms the core part of Navalny's supporter base. A charismatic figure, Navalny uses social media to connect with his base in a way that the political elite of the Kremlin simply doesn't. Finally, some commentators have raised the possibility that the mass movements in neighbouring Belarus may have had some hand in motivating the Russian power centre to act before Navalny could become a serious threat to Putin in this politically delicate time.
If that was the intent, it failed. Not only did Navalny survive, but he also came back to Russia more energised to take forward his fight against the Putin regime. Coinciding with his high profile entry, his team released a documentary on Navalny's YouTube account titled 'Putin's Palace. History of World's Largest Bribe'. The primary allegation made by this documentary was that Putin has ownership of a palace estate on the Black Sea that is worth over a billion US dollars. The documentary shows recreated scenes of an incredibly opulent estate, replete with a tea house, greenhouse, underground ice palace and two helipads, all under the protection of the Federal Security Service. Then allegations were made that a series of donors were funnelling huge sums of money into the estate in what was called Putin's 'slush fund'.
The video blew up on YouTube and received millions of views and was even considered major enough for Putin to personally address the allegations on video conference. Naturally, he declined any claims of connection to the property. All the same, contrary to his cool refusal of the allegations, Putin immediately had Navalny arrested on his entry into Russia. He was sentenced to two years and eight months for the frivolous charge of failing to report to his parole officers while he was recovering from the chemical attack in Germany. Overnight major protests started across the nation. Thousands were detained and are still being detained as the police crackdown grew ever more heavy-handed. While the official response has cooled the protests for the moment, there is an expectation that this is not the last of such events. Meanwhile, Russia finds itself facing the possibility of a fresh series of sanctions. At the same time, there are also indications that Navalny's arrest has had a restrictive effect on Russian markets as international investors watch the situation with concern. Neither of these situations individually bode well for Russia when its economy is already reeling from the pandemic but combined, they hold the potential to shake-up Putin's generally rock-steady reign over his country. It remains to be seen how he weathers this storm and when he can finally retire from his increasingly tenuous position.