The fact that the US and Iran have historically had difficult relations since the fall of the Shah of Iran is a well-known fact. This tension boiled over in the Iranian hostage crisis in 1979 and it seemed unlikely that any common ground for normalisation could be reached between the two nations. And yet, through concentrated efforts bolstered by other nations, such a normalisation did happen. While disagreements continued for decades regarding everything from continuing US presence in the region to its support of Israel, there was some perceivable normalisation that culminated in the signing of the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2015.
As it were, this fragile peace did not last for long as the new US President Donald J Trump sought to establish his legacy by repealing many policies and agreements that were achieved by his predecessor. It is worth noting however that when the US Congress was presented with the deal, a bipartisan majority was actually opposed to the deal in the form that it was presented. Regardless, when the US did pull out of the deal in 2018, it was almost universally criticised by many of its allies. Indeed the European Commission went so far as to declare the new sanctions imposed by the US on Iran as illegal and instructed the European Investment Bank to facilitate European companies' investment in Iran in order to prevent Iran from taking drastic measures on account of being cornered by the economic burdens of the US sanctions, Since then, the conflict has slowly heated up, finally resulting in 2020 assassination of Major General Qasem Soleimani of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, widely considered as the backbone of Iran''s regional influence. The region teetered on the edge of all-out conflict but COVID-19 pandemic served to sweep such tensions aside as both nations were forced to confront growing crises at home. And yet, the world moves on.
As November elections draw closer, Donald Trump has embarked on wide-ranging campaigns to achieve visible political victories on the international and domestic front to offset a sharp fall in his approval ratings. One of these endeavours took the form of last week's attempt to extend the arms embargo on Iran at the UNSC. While it was noted that the proposal was highly unlikely to pass anyway given Russian and Chinese opposition, the Trump administration was expecting at least enough support within the council to make way for more drastic actions against Iran in the near future. Instead, the US was dealt a humiliating defeat with one nation — the Dominican Republic voting in support. This was after the US had already toned down on anti-Iran rhetoric in the draft to win wider support. While this total defeat could well be considered a sign of increasing US isolation on the international stage, the US was not done. As the US had already pulled out of the deal, it is no longer a party to it and does not hold the authority to impose sanctions based on the stipulations of the deal. This is the stance that much of the UNSC has taken. The US, however, has argued that it is still technically a party to the deal and can thus snap back the sanctions. This week, Trump confirmed that he will indeed be 'asking' the UN to reimpose all the relevant sanctions under the deal on Iran. He further claimed that if and when he wins the November elections, he expects Iran to come begging for a new deal, broken down by the weight of the sanctions. Presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner added to the messaging by stating that the US was ready to make a deal with Iran after Trump was re-elected but he also asserted that Trump was going to be "tough" on Iran.
Meanwhile, Iran has unveiled two new ballistic and cruise missiles named after top Iranian General Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, both of whom were killed by US strikes earlier this year. It seems rather obvious that the naming and timing of this revelation has the purpose of infuriating the US administration even further. At a time when the Israel-UAE deal threatens to further alienate Iran in the region, such measures are an unfortunate sign of intensification.
Analysis of the underlying reasons for such intensification during this time is mixed. Trump's snapback attempt is sure to face significant hurdles at the UNSC making the whole attempt a questionable move. Some commentators have theorised that Trump is attempting to bait Iran into pulling out of the deal in anger itself. He may be attempting to create a scenario in which any succeeding US administration will find it difficult to return to the deal later on. On the flip side, there are many commentators and journalists who have also forwarded a theory of secret US-Iran talks based on mutual interests of the present administrations that need a win-win scenario in the presently dour political climate, a theory many news agencies in Iran support. Only time will tell as to which direction the US-Iran relations go in next.