The second round of direct peace talks between Russia and Ukraine this week, held in Istanbul, has exposed the deep chasm that still divides the two countries after more than three years of brutal conflict. Despite the apparent progress in exchanging prisoners and agreeing to swap thousands of dead soldiers, the negotiators have made no headway on the fundamental issues of peace and sovereignty. The war continues to grind on, with both sides ramping up their military campaigns even as they sit down at the negotiating table. The most striking development in the backdrop of these talks was the dramatic escalation of long-range strikes. In a bold and meticulously planned operation, Ukraine unleashed a wave of drone attacks on Russian air bases deep inside Russian territory, destroying or damaging more than 40 aircraft, including some of Moscow’s prized strategic bombers. The operation was as audacious as it was effective: it struck air bases across three different time zones, underscoring Ukraine’s determination and ability to strike at the heart of Russian military power. For Ukraine, this was not just a symbolic blow—it was a clear message to Moscow that it can no longer assume its air assets are untouchable. Russia’s response was equally forceful. In what Ukraine’s air force described as the largest drone barrage of the war so far, Russia launched 472 drones in a single night. The scale of this offensive was clearly intended to overwhelm Ukrainian air defences and inflict maximum damage on civilian infrastructure. The cycle of attack and retaliation continues to spin ever faster, with little sign of real de-escalation on the horizon.
Against this backdrop, the peace talks were always going to be a fraught affair. The Russian delegation presented a memorandum that demands Ukraine withdraw its forces from the four regions Russia annexed in 2022—regions that Moscow still does not fully control. It also insists that Ukraine halt its military mobilisation and freeze all Western arms supplies, a condition that Kyiv and its allies have consistently rejected. In a move that seems almost fantastical in the current climate, Moscow is also demanding that Ukraine abandon its NATO ambitions, scale back its military, hold elections under Russian oversight, and grant official status to the Russian language. These are demands that Kyiv sees not as peace terms, but as a recipe for capitulation. Ukraine, for its part, has responded with caution. Defence Minister Rustem Umerov has indicated that his delegation will need at least a week to study the Russian proposals and draft a response. Kyiv has also proposed further talks in late June, suggesting that despite the intransigence on both sides, the door to dialogue is not entirely shut. The humanitarian element of the talks—exchanging prisoners and returning the dead—offers a small glimmer of hope. Around 6,000 dead soldiers will be exchanged, and a new commission will oversee the exchange of seriously wounded troops. These steps, while welcome, are overshadowed by the relentless violence still unfolding along the 1,000-kilometre front line. Russia’s missile and artillery barrages in Ukraine’s southern Kherson region and around Zaporizhzhia have claimed lives and left dozens wounded. Even as diplomats talk of truce, the war’s grinding reality persists.
For Ukraine, the drone attacks on Russian air bases have injected a fresh dose of confidence. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hailed the strikes as a historic operation that would pressure Moscow to come to the negotiating table. There is a sense in Kyiv that showing Russia the costs of its aggression is the surest path to real negotiations. In Vilnius this week, Zelenskyy argued that “Russia must feel what its losses mean. That is what will push it toward diplomacy.” It is a stark reminder that for Ukraine, military strength and diplomatic leverage are intertwined. Meanwhile, the US-led efforts to broker a truce have so far fallen short. Washington’s attempts to nudge Moscow toward a ceasefire have foundered in the face of Russia’s entrenched positions and Ukraine’s refusal to compromise its territorial integrity. Former President Donald Trump’s recent outburst—calling Putin “absolutely CRAZY” for escalating attacks on Kyiv—reflects both frustration and the growing realisation that a quick resolution is unlikely. The world is watching this slow-motion tragedy unfold with a mixture of horror and resignation. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is correct when he says that simply getting the two sides to meet again is an achievement. But it is not enough. The stark reality is that both sides remain locked in a zero-sum struggle, unwilling to yield on core principles. For Ukraine, survival as a sovereign nation is non-negotiable. For Russia, anything short of subjugating Kyiv’s independence is seen as a defeat. As the war grinds on, the human cost mounts. Millions have been displaced, thousands have died, and entire regions lie in ruins. The brief glimpses of diplomacy—the prisoner exchanges and the respectful repatriation of the dead—are reminders that even amid war’s madness, there is a shared humanity. But until Moscow and Kyiv can bridge the vast divide that still separates them, these small acts of humanity will be mere footnotes to a conflict that shows no sign of ending. Peace is not achieved by rhetoric alone. It is forged in the hard work of compromise and in the recognition of the other’s dignity. As the Russia-Ukraine war continues to rage, it is a sobering lesson for all of us in the high price of intransigence and the elusive nature of peace.