The Indian government’s decision to conduct mock drills in over 200 civil defence districts today is anything but routine. The last time the nation went for such a drill was before the dastardly 1971 India-Pak war. The announcement text by the Ministry of Home Affairs is couched in the language of preparedness. It is clarified that the drill—to be exercised under the Civil Defence Rules, 1968—is part of broader civil defence efforts, rather than being a signal of immediate conflict. This is, however, just the text—constituting just one facet of reality. The other facet of reality i.e., the context, characterised by timing and perception, is equally important and will shape whatever immediate future is about to unfold.
The background at play is marked by the heinous Pahalgam attack killing 26 tourists, mostly Hindus. A large part of India presumes the attack to have been carried out by culprits from Pakistan. This presumption is reported to be substantiated by the findings of investigation thus far. Since they targeted mostly Hindus, the intent of the terrorists was probably to hurt the pride of a government that is openly obsessed with building a Hindu Rashtra, or to incite fear among the Hindus residing in the state. The BJP government at the Centre has avowed to bring the perpetrators to justice “in a way they can’t imagine.” This, obviously should be the stand of any government whose people are killed on their soil mercilessly, presumably with the help of foreign hand. The response has to be stringent and unforgiving. But beyond this narrative of truth and facts, what is unfolding is also a game of perception and optics. The NDA government in India ostensibly survives on the optics of hardcore Hinduism. It is politically compulsive for the party to act in a manner that not only punishes the culprits—actual and presumed—but also gives the optics of something big being done, and that too in a timely manner, before people’s anger settles down. The onus of avoiding a war with Pakistan will partly depend on the Indian government. It has to be seen how it sticks to the necessity of punishing the culprits in the harshest manner possible without letting the optics game feed the narrative of war.
The second part of the context is unfolding on the other side of the border. Pakistan’s defence minister, Khawaja Asif, has raised apprehensions regarding an imminent military strike along the Line of Control in Kashmir. This is, in fact, not an isolated statement. Similar statements have been made by other officials from Pakistan in recent past. This also feeds the perception of war. The third part of the context can be seen in the apprehensions raised by global leaders, particularly at international fora and agencies. At the insistence of Pakistan, United Nations Security Council held closed-door consultations on Monday in a bid to discuss the tense situation between India and Pakistan. The call made by the UNSC, of course, is of peace and restraint. However, this call itself is an evidence of potential escalation between the two nuclear nations. In midst of all this, India and Pakistan must heed to the words of UN Secretary General Antonio Guterrus, “Now is the time for maximum restraint and stepping back from the brink…Make no mistake: A military solution is no solution.” The ongoing wars in Ukraine and Middle East are living examples that should negate the impulse for war.
The drill announced by the MHA cannot be seen in isolation against these facets of the broader context. It would have been a clearly positive move had it not been surrounded by the tense environment in which India and Pakistan are operating right now. Presently, with very little time left to make people aware about the concept of mock drills, clouds of uncertainty and apprehension of war may creep in the psyche of the people—on both sides of the border. The Indian government now has the onus of convincing friends and foes that preparedness is never a sign of conflict—only its antidote. It should make it crystal clear that it doesn’t want to be caught off guard. The people must know that what India is doing is rehearsal for safety, and not the theatre of war.