At the beginning of this year, the scale of COVID-19, its effects, its very existence were a matter of debate with very little in the way of concrete projections for what devastation it would bring in the future. Regardless, one aspect of it which was clear from the very start and gravely so was its enormous impact on our interconnected neoliberal world order. Long before record unemployment numbers became a standard feature of the daily news cycle, there were grim predictions of the sheer devastation COVID-19 would bring to world economies, devastating entire sectors, starting from the obvious ones like aviation and hospitality. Then, as our work culture shifted and the lay-offs began amidst the global lockdown, there were real fears of what would become of the so-called 'lockdown generation'. Indeed, ever since the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Labour Organisation (ILO) coined the term, it has become a widespread topic of discussion and debate, with many deliberating as to how to save this generation which will not only be hit harder by the financial crisis as they start or have just started out in a shrinking job market. Obviously, they will also have to bear higher long term social and economic costs. It is likely that many will be far more financially insecure and enjoy a worse quality of life as compared to their parents as they struggle to navigate a changing world economy. This is naturally not just related to those who are accessing the job market right now but also those who will do so in the future and are currently in their education and training phase. Disruption in standard education will impact a whole generation and a shift to digital learning may not quite be as comprehensive an answer as would be hoped. A recent ILO report stated that compared to the 65 per cent of young people in wealthier nations who could access digital learning material, only 18 per cent of the youth in poorer countries could do so. As a rather grim conclusion, the report also stated that there has been a 50 per cent increase in youth reporting an increase in instances of anxiety and depression, a pattern that is expected to carry on for some time. ILO has urged world governments to protect this generation with targeted policy action least it is entirely lost or permanently scarred by this crisis.
Unfortunately, the bad news doesn't end here. More numbers convey the ever-widening scope of lasting damage as a result of the pandemic. This week, the World Bank President David Malpass commented that the pandemic may have already pushed as many as 100 million people worldwide back into the clutches of poverty, reverting the efforts of decades of policies aimed at uplifting people from the bottom of the financial food chain. Previously, the World Bank had estimated that same number at 60 million. Malpass has warned that the number will go significantly higher as the pandemic worsens or drags on. Malpass stated that the situation is continuing to deteriorate due to the twin factors of job loss and rise of basic commodity prices due to severe disruptions in supply chains. He urged creditors to reduce the amount of debt held by poor countries at risk and not simply suspend the debt collection as the crisis will have long-lasting impacts. A more radical solution may be required down the line. The World Bank has started the process of mobilising USD 160 billion to meet gaps in health systems, education failing informal sectors, etc., worldwide. Malpass did end on a somewhat optimistic note by commenting that he was certain that people working together would overcome the situation. For now, however, this pandemic has only served to highlight the growing inequalities in our neo-liberal financial systems. On one hand, the richest of the rich are continuing to amass wealth at record levels during the pandemic, with many adding billions to their net worth. On the other hand, there are real concerns that growing food insecurity will become an issue that may well surpass the pandemic itself in scale and devastation. As Malpass noted, for now, the food supplies are holding on the basis of food imports and decent harvests but as the crisis drags on, avoiding famine across the world will become increasingly more difficult. Carrying on with business as usual is not an option this time around.