A few days ago, the situation in Beirut was grim. The city was recovering from the shock of an explosion that will go down in history as one of the largest of its kind, the people were angry and beleaguered by poverty and corruption and the leaders were trying their level best to avoid any kind of responsibility for the tragedy. At that point, Lebanon's fragile governance was already looking shaky with the people demanding revolution and retribution for all that had befallen them. Despite making a show of arresting negligent officials, it was clear that the Government of Lebanon was on the edge of crisis. It was going to lose control, that was certain, it was only a matter of when.
The 'when' in question appears to have happened sooner than later. On Monday evening, PM Hassan Diab offered the resignation of his government. He did so following the resignation of many ministers in the cabinet. During his televised speech, Diab attempted to portray himself as an earnest reformer that had tried his best but had been beaten soundly by the sheer scale of corruption in the nation and its governance. He claimed that corruption was not simply part of the running of the state but was, in fact, bigger than the state itself. He alluded to a class that had and would continue to resort to every dirty trick possible to keep things the way they are and prevent meaningful reform. He called the act of resignation a way to step back and fight the long war against corruption with the people of Lebanon. Of course, the resignation of the current Government of Lebanon does not mean that change has already come. Indeed, the resigning government has been asked to stay on as a caretaker government by Lebanon's President until a new government may come to power. Given Lebanon's track record, electing a new government is not going to be an easy task. The previous government was also forced to step down following corruption protests and Diab was chosen as the new PM after much debate. Repeating the whole process now could take a long time, during which the caretaker government under Diab would remain in control. And even if, the process was to be expedited, a new government and fresh elections don't exactly qualify as the 'revolution' the people of Lebanon want. Many observers have noted that Lebanon's election process is very much designed to serve and protect its political elite. Elections, whenever they happen, will likely manage only a simple reshuffle and draw from a pool of leaders that the Lebanese people consider corrupt as a whole. Many journalists and others experts within the country have implored the international community to stop helping the political parties and help the people instead if they wish to truly see any significant change in Lebanon. The explosion may help loosen the grip of these entrenched political elites but it will not be enough to completely shale them free. A concentrated pressure campaign that spans the globe will be the only way to ensure that Lebanon does not simply settle for the next government in line.
For now, the death toll to one of the worst peacetime accidents is mounting. As French President Macron is playing the role of the hero in this scenario with online emergency fund rallies and in-person visits to devastated areas, the Lebanese Government has largely been quiet on how it plans to find and punish the guilty. They have shown visible resistance to the idea of an external, independent investigation which many of the people and world leaders have asked for. For now, there is the question of how the aid amount, totalling more than 250 million euros, will reach the people. Macron has promised that the aid will not be given through the Lebanese Government but many see this as a difficult task given the sophisticated and convoluted system of local and sectarian patronage that exists to siphon these kinds of aid funds away. As the country faces possible food shortages and ever-growing COVID-19 rates, the fight against corruption may soon take a back seat to the simple task of surviving the truly chaotic scenario.