Coming full circle

Update: 2021-10-10 13:52 GMT

As Ratan Tata tweeted 'Welcome back, Air India', a nostalgia seemed inherent in his words. The airline went back into the kitty of Tatas after 68 years of its nationalization in 1953. Since it was founded in 1932 by JRD Tata — with the name Tata Air Mail — the airlines had dominated the airspace for around six decades — the first two as a private entity and then as a nationalized airline. Its dominance came to be challenged during the early 1990s with the advent of private players in the wake of the LPG policies of the government. The situation would further deteriorate for Air India over the coming years — forcing it into a debt and loss spiral and making it an unviable enterprise for the government. The selling of AIR India to a private player came after several failed attempts over the past two decades. The initial attempt was made at the start of the current century under Atal Bihari Vajpayee's leadership. The recent efforts — following which the government managed to sell its prime airline — started way back in 2017. In 2017, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) approved the strategic disinvestment of Air India and its five subsidiaries. It would be very pertinent here to distinguish strategic disinvestment of assets from selling of assets in order to merely bridge the revenue gaps. Where strategic disinvestment is a delicately chalked out plan with the aim to optimally augment the profitability of the stressed asset in question, a flat sale — despite filling the government coffers in the short run — leads to underutilization of resources and the loss of potential. Coming back to the disinvestment effort, after the CECA's approval, the government decided to invite investors to buy 76 per cent of its stake in Air India. This, however, didn't go well with the investors, and they decided to pull out. Consequently, the government failed to attract a single bid by the deadline in May 2018. The government finally decided in January 2020 to sell 100 per cent stakes of AIR India. Shockingly, it still failed to attract the bidders and had to stretch its deadline several times. Apart from the blow dealt by the pandemic to the aviation sector, the major stumbling block this time around was the outstanding debt of Air India — standing well above 60,000 crores. In the 2018 disinvestment offer, the bidders were required to absorb Rs 33,392 crore of the total debt; this was reduced to Rs 23,287 crores in the 2020 disinvestment offer. Presently, the Tatas will be required to shoulder a debt of Rs 15,300 crore; and the remaining part will be transferred to a special purpose vehicle (SPV). The government has obviously shown a great deal of flexibility to tone down its targets to sell Air India. It is here that the line between strategic disinvestment and asset sale gets a bit blurred. It won't be wrong to say that like the ancient mariner, the government has managed to get rid of the albatross, but maybe not in the best possible way. It has of course garnered some profit which could boost the pandemic-torn economy, but it remains to be seen, in the long run, what positive/negative impact the Air India sale will have on the economy and the aviation sector. Though the government officials have termed the sale of Air India as a win-win situation for both the government and the aviation sector, it may be too early to arrive at any conclusion at this juncture. As for the company, it did not appear to have much bright prospects while being in the hands of the government, and it was destined to go to a private player. What better could have been than to end up with its original founders! It is now up to the Tatas to turn it into a profitable venture — taking it back to its golden days. It is needless to say that the task is not straightforward. The Tatas have an onerous task of handling Air India, Air India Express and partly the ground-handling company Air India SATS, along with an outstanding debt. The even greater question is that of employment and human resources. The government has agreed to clear medical and retirement benefits, as also the pending arrears. This would give Tatas a significant respite. At present, it can just be hoped that Air India returns back to its glory days. For the policymakers, the Air India disinvestment should serve as a benchmark for analysis for future disinvestments or asset sale.

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