As of the morning of June 23, India recorded 50,848 new cases and 1,358 new deaths within the last 24 hours. Though this number is itself a 19 per cent rise on the ones recorded the day before, the seven day average for case counts is visibly going down. To reflect this lull in India's second wave of COVID, restrictions are already opening up in parts of the country. In UP, for instance, one of the hardest-hit states in the second wave, restrictions are now being rolled back with malls and restaurants being allowed to open with limited capacity. Though educational institutions will remain shut, for now, other public areas such as zoos are being reopened. So is this back to the usual? Probably not. Unlike the last time there was a lull in case counts following the 'end' of the first wave of COVID in India, this time there is little room for complacency or pre-emptively claiming that India has won its fight against COVID-19. India is still not quite out of the second wave as yet and the third wave may already be in sight. But before a spell of bad news, a spot of good news to begin. On International Yoga Day on June 21, India administered a record 90.86 lakh doses. While this was an impressive and welcome achievement, it is important to place its significance or lack thereof in proper context. For one, the vaccination numbers in India dropped back down to 54.22 lakh doses the very next day on June 22. Secondly, India needs to administering around one crore doses a day to make serious headway in its current vaccination campaign by year-end. This means that isolated 'big days' like June 21 will need to happen over and over again, every single day. The third point and one that is consequential to the world at large is that currently there is a race between vaccination rates worldwide and the ability of the virus to mutate. The Delta variant which was first detected in India has since then gone on to become the dominant variant in many parts of the world. In the UK where adult vaccination rates have reached as high as 60 per cent, the Delta variant is driving what can be argued to be the third wave. While there is no good evidence to show that these variants are becoming more deadly or more likely to cause hospitalisation, there is evidence to show that they are more infectious and also getting better at dodging natural and vaccine given immunity. Still, studies in the UK show that two doses of a vaccine like Pfizer of AstraZeneca are over 80 per cent effective against these new variants. Though the case of the UK is worrying for the world at large, the hope is that high rates of vaccination will prevent the third wave from being as damaging as the second. Sadly, in India, there is no such fallback hope. Though the government is aware that vaccination rates need to pick up and reach the one crore mark, this is a gradual process. At the same time, there is as yet very little knowledge on how Indian vaccine makers like SII will suddenly ramp up production to the extent that would allow hundreds of crores of doses to be made by year-end. Moreover, a new variant has emerged that is being called the Delta-plus variant that has been discovered in parts of Maharashtra, Kerala and Madhya Pradesh. From what little is known about this variant, it shows signs of increased transmissibility, stronger binding to receptors of lung cells and, significantly, potential reduction in monoclonal antibody response. Maharashtra is already ramping up preparations for the third wave that experts say could hit around September to October though it is possible that it could hit earlier. Already there are concerns over the wave having an increased effect on children. The basis for this assertion seems to be the fact that the second wave hospitalised more people from younger age groups as compared to the first wave. There is also concern that children are steadily becoming the unprotected group as other age groups get vaccinated. It should be noted that there is no conclusive scientific backing to the idea of the third wave being particularly bad for children. COVID does not discriminate and moreover, there is still plenty of indication that children simply do better against COVID, particularly in the case of hospitalisations. All that said, there is a need to exercise an abundance of caution. Human tendencies play a big part in determining how destructive the third wave will be. If India and Indians can resist the lull of large-scale events such as festivals and big Indian weddings during the coming months, then super spreader events that were so central to the second wave may be avoided. The third wave will come, there is likely no room for doubt on that front. Other waves will also likely continue afterwards. The only way to prevail is for good sense and scientific thinking to be the guiding principle for both the Indian government and the people.