Battling for identity

Update: 2022-10-09 17:42 GMT

On the evening of October 8, the Election Commission of India, through its interim order, froze the "bow and arrow" symbol of the Shiv Sena — disallowing both Eknath Shinde and Uddhav Thackeray factions from contesting Andheri East Assembly by-polls on November 3. Since the nomination process had started on Friday, this was an urgent and fair move. Now the two factions will contest the by-polls on a party symbol of their choice — obviously from the list offered by the ECI. Meanwhile, in Maharashtra, the tussle between the two factions to become the "real Shiv Sena" has become intense — percolating even to the ground level. The Eknath Shinde faction, enjoying the seat of power in the state, is particularly reported to have stepped up its actions rather vigorously on a war footing. The Uddhav Thackeray faction, at the same time, is finding itself in deep trouble. Of late, it lost political support from the majority of its MLAs in an "orchestrated" political drama, which also threw it out from the position of power. Now, with the symbol that relates it with the general masses of the state, being at stake, it is facing its worst phase. Towards the end of September this year, the Chief Election Commissioner had said in most certain terms that the commission will apply the 'rule of majority' while deciding on this matter. In fact, this has been a historical trend — be it the 1969 split in the Congress, the very recent split in LJP in 2021 or any other similar incident. The majority can be adjudicated in terms of two aspects — majority in the party organisation and majority in terms of number of MPs and MLAs. The numerical strength of the Eknath Shinde faction cannot be doubted. As per the Election Commission, it had claimed support of 12 out of 18 MPs, 40 out of 55 MLAs and various MLCs. There is hardly any doubt that once a formidable force in Maharashtrian politics, the Uddhav faction now stands at the margin. However, Thackeray has not lost his appeal. His sheer ability to make an emotional connection with the masses and party cadre still keeps him very much intact in the game. The loss of party symbol, nevertheless, would be a real blow to the Thackeray faction. It will face a challenge to build an altogether new identity. It may be noted that voting preferences, particularly in rural areas, are still discussed in terms of party symbols. Symbols carry an identity and impersonal touch with the voters. On Friday, Thackeray's lawyers had requested four weeks' time before the final verdict. It is difficult to say if any amount of time at this juncture will help the Shiv Sena in this regard. With the Centre-ruling BJP's support to the Eknath Shinde faction, chances are slim for Thackeray. However, in every crisis there is an opportunity. Even if the party symbol goes to the Eknath Shinde faction, Thackeray will have an opportunity to recalibrate his politics to suit the new equations. Shining of Shinde might be a passing fad in Maharashtra politics as the BJP eyes to consolidate the Hindutva vote for itself. How effectively and quickly Uddhav Thackeray manages to build up a new narrative is the moot question. The main grounds on which his leadership got challenged was that he compromised with the Hindutva ideology by joining the Congress and the NCP. It is the demand of time to question the BJP's monopoly over the Hindutva narrative. No other party is more well-placed than "Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena" to challenge this narrative and give the country a viable alternative to BJP's Hindutva. Will he try to build a Hindutva narrative that will not compromise on the principles of secularism and fraternity — the ideology that will make it more flexible to form alliances with non-BJP parties if needed? Only time can answer this. Amid all this, one thing is clear — either as the "real Shiv Sena" or as a splinter group, the relevance of Shiv Sena in Maharashtrian politics should increase. One may count the days of Shinde's influence as numbered. With the BJP battling for political space against the NCP and the Congress, Uddhav's Shiv Sena has the potential to play the pivot — only if it is willing to and has the required finesse. Modifying the Hindutva narrative to the slightest bit will be a challenging task, given the fact that it has been successfully popularised as anti-Islam. Thackeray will need to strike a moderate balance if he wishes to remain relevant in the long game.

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