We live in historic times. 2020 looks to be a year to remember, if not for all the positive reasons. But this week, history took another monumental turn, one that may usher in some semblance of peace in one of the most chaotic and troubled regions in the world. The United Arab Emirates has reached a deal with Israel, taking a step forward in normalising their relations and becoming the first country in the Gulf Arab world to do so and the third Arab nation overall to reach a normalisation with Israel. Announced on Twitter by a very excited Trump, the deal will see UAE recognising Israel as a state while Israel, in turn, will put an indefinite (if temporary) halt to its West Bank annexation plans. Flight services, business contracts and many other deals are expected to follow this ice-breaking new deal.
While this deal may see a general easing of tensions in the area, it would be prudent to consider the many contributing ground realities that have made such a deal possible. First, it allows the Netanyahu Government some breathing space. Netanyahu and his Government have been under increasing pressure on all sides to balance his fight against the ongoing pandemic with Israel's long-held wish to conquer and 'reclaim' the West Bank. The difficult balancing act has drained the political fortunes of Netanyahu who is finding it increasingly difficult to hold on to power. Now, this deal will allow Netanyahu to step back from the planned military action and concentrate on domestic issues. At the same time, the hardliners who are urging him to take the West Bank as he promised will be held at bay by the deal, at least for the time being. It is certain that any acts of aggression on the West Bank front, while theoretically approved by Trump's 'Middle East peace plan' will force the Arab nations to further alienate Israel, a step back after the many decades it has taken to reach a small level of normalisation in the region. At the same time, Israel and the Gulf nations have one rather significant source of common concerns, Iran. As the US slowly pulls out of the region, a new system is required to keep Iran in check. Usually, the US acted as the bridge for such efforts in the region. Now, this agreement and others that may follow will, at the very least, allow a meeting point for Israel and the Gulf nations to tackle the threat of an increasingly aggressive Iran. Regardless of whether the November US elections will see the Iran Nuclear Deal restored or not, this mechanism for cooperation will prove useful for confronting possible Iranian aggression.
And speaking of the US elections, the timing of the deal does make Trump's interest in the matter rather obvious. Trump is facing a significant slump in his approval ratings. His domestic concerns aside, his foreign policy actions are also being seen as ineffectual with many of his grand strategies regarding China, North Korea, etc., not panning out as planned. More pertinently, Trump's 'revolutionary Middle East peace plan has been criticised in most circles and seen as a confused attempt to simply reinforce the status quo in favour of Israel. This deal will allow Trump to cap the whole affair and label it as a victory at a time when he badly needs them. If the deal becomes the groundwork for further deals, Trump gains even more avenues to trump-up his achievements.
Naturally, as much of a win-win situation as the deal comes across, there are those who are not entirely pleased by its existence. Palestine has denounced the deal and called it a betrayal, with many leaders even going so far as to state that the UAE has sold out its friends (the Palestinians). Iran has naturally condemned the deal as an act of "strategic stupidity" that will only strengthen Iran's resistance to the criminal acts of Israel and those now complicit in their crimes. Then there is Turkey, ever the vanguard for all perceived Muslim causes. Turkey was one of the parties that was unreservedly critical of Trump's peace plan because it went against the idea behind the 2002 Arab Peace Plan that mandated the complete withdrawal of Israel from occupied Palestinian lands as the pre-requisite to any normalisation of relations between Israel and the Arab world. The new deal is obviously not to Turkey's taste. Turkey has denounced the deal and the UAE by stating that the Arab world will not forgive UAE for its "hypocritical behaviour". Finally, on the other side of the spectrum, right-wing Israeli settlers say the deal is a betrayal of the trust placed in Netanyahu to deliver them the West Bank settlements.
In a region where fault lines often magnify and echo through the ages, it is unknown what sort of lasting change such a deal could bring but is certain that change will come, good or bad.