New Delhi: Delhi needs to be prepared for about 15,000 fresh cases of COVID-19 per day taking into account the upcoming winter season-related respiratory problems, large influx of patients from outside and festive gatherings, a report drafted by the NCDC has warned.
The report drafted by the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) under the guidance of the expert group under the chairmanship of NITI Aayog member (Health) Dr V K Paul has recommended the Delhi government to make arrangements for hospitalisation of about one-fifth of these patients with moderate and severe disease.
The NCDC in its 'Revised Strategy for control of COVID-19 version 3.0' also observed that the overall COVID-19 case fatality rate in Delhi is 1.9 per cent, which is higher than the national average of 1.5 per cent. It stated that reducing mortality to the extent possible should be one of the key objectives of managing the pandemic.
According to the report submitted to the Delhi government, there are three reasons to worry that may cause excessive pressure on healthcare services such as winter months that make respiratory illnesses severe and with festive gatherings there could be a sudden rise in cases.
Also, patients may come from outside Delhi in large numbers. Patients coming from distant areas are likely to be more serious, the report underlined.
"Therefore, it is recommended that Delhi should prepare for a daily surge of ~15,000 positive cases and make arrangements for inpatient admissions of patients with moderate and severe disease roughly amounting to 20 per cent of this surge," the report said.
According to it, till date 2,324 health care workers are affected due to COVID-19 in Delhi of which 23 per cent are doctors, 34 per cent nurses, 15 per cent paramedics, 18 per cent Group D staff and 10 per cent others. "A total of 75 deaths are reported in HCWs of which 14 are of doctors which may be underreported.
"The increasing mortality in HCW and doctors is detrimental for maintaining the morale of these COVID warriors, hence all efforts should be undertaken to prevent the health care-associated infection in all the hospitals, labs and field workers engaged in active survey in containment zones," the report said.
Delhi has reported a total 5,401 deaths till date, the committee said, adding the average daily reported mortality ranges between 30 and 40 from 15 September onwards. The higher mortality in the co-morbid (66.6 per cent) and the elderly is inevitable and reported all over states and globally, the report said.
Delhi's COVID-19 tally crossed the three-lakh mark on Thursday with 2,726 fresh cases, while the death toll due to the disease mounted to 5,653 with 37 fatalities recorded in the last 24 hours, authorities said. The fresh cases on Thursday were detected after 53,322 COVID-19 tests were conducted the previous day. The active caseload marginally rose to 22,232 on from 22,186 the previous day.
With inputs from agencies