Concrete jungle? Urban sprawl set to cover 28% of land by 2033

New Delhi: Built-up areas in Delhi-NCR are projected to increase from 3,386.76 sq km in 2023 to 3,868.28 sq km by 2033, according to a new study, indicating about 28 per cent of the region will be urbanised, an addition of 481.5 sq km or about 14 per cent over 2023 levels.

Built-up areas are land covered by houses, roads, factories and other concrete structures. The research, titled ‘Forecasting urban expansion in Delhi-NCR: Integrating remote sensing, machine learning, and Markov chain simulation for sustainable urban planning’, was published in GeoJournal and carried out by professors from Jawaharlal Nehru University’s School of Environmental Sciences along with other scholars.

It analysed land use and land cover changes between 2003 and 2023 and made projections for 2033. According to the study, agricultural land is expected to reduce by 2033 to 9,153.1 sq km, which will cover about 66.5 per cent of the study area. This represents a decline of 477.6 square kilometres compared to 2023. Forest cover may reduce slightly from 282.9 sq km to 281.3 sq km.

Water bodies are likely to go down from 101.09 sq km to 100.04 sq km. Open land could shrink from 24.11 sq km to 21.83 sq km. Scrubland may rise only by about one sq km, reaching 329.5 sq km.

The study said central Delhi has little space left for horizontal expansion. The outer peripheries in the north, west, east and south-west are seeing most of the growth.

It said these areas have witnessed farmland and scrubland giving way to residential colonies, industrial belts and transport networks.

A prominent transformation of scrubland to urbanised areas was recorded in the south, west, south-west and north. The study said central and eastern Delhi saw only slight changes.

Between 2003 and 2023, built-up areas rose from 1,893.64 sq km or 13.77 per cent of the region to 3,386.76 sq km or 24.62 per cent.

That was an increase of nearly 1,500 sq km in two decades. The sharpest rise took place between 2003 and 2013, when built-up areas grew by 1,011 sq km or 53 per cent. From 2013 to 2023, the increase was 482 sq km or 16.6 per cent.

According to the study, agricultural land fell from 10,921.8 sq km or 79.4 per cent in 2003 to 9,630.7 sq km or 70 per cent in 2023.

This was a loss of about 1,300 sq km. Forest cover reduced from 415.4 sq km to 282.9 sq km, a fall of 132 sq km or nearly one-third.