New Delhi: US sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, along with the EU’s ban on refined products made from Russian crude, are unlikely to significantly impact the margins or credit profiles of India’s state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs), Fitch Ratings said.
The agency noted, however, that the eventual effect will depend on the duration and enforcement of the sanctions.
Russian crude accounted for nearly one-third of India’s oil imports between January and August 2025, with discounted supplies playing a major role in boosting OMC profitability.
Fitch expects Indian refiners to comply with the sanctions, though some may continue sourcing non-restricted Russian barrels. India’s dependence on Russian oil surged after the 2022 Ukraine invasion, rising from under 1 per cent to almost 40 per cent of total crude imports as Western sanctions and weak European demand made Russian oil available at steep discounts.
The latest US sanctions target Rosneft and Lukoil, which earlier supplied about 75 per cent of India’s Russian crude. Indian refiners have paused purchases from these firms, though other Rus-sian producers may continue selling.
Fitch said sanctions-related supply disruptions could depress global demand for refined products linked to restricted crude, widening product spreads and partly offsetting the reduced availabil-ity of discounted barrels.
Refiners still processing Russian grades could see deeper discounts. Ample spare global production capacity should also help cap prices, with Brent projected at $70 in 2025 and $65 in 2026.
Private refiners with large EU exposure may face heightened compliance risks due to challenges in tracking crude origins once blends are formed. They may redirect exports, alter crude mixes or invest in stronger traceability
systems.