new delhi: After a robust 2023, foreign investors significantly scaled back their investments in Indian equities in 2024, with net inflows amounting to over Rs 5,000 crore, as elevated domestic valuations, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance.
Looking ahead to 2025, FPI flows into Indian equities could see a recovery, supported by a cyclical upswing in corporate earnings, particularly in domestic-oriented sectors like capital goods, manufacturing, and infrastructure, Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research, Ventura Securities, said.
However, elevated valuations and cheaper alternatives in other emerging markets, such as ASEAN and Latin America, could constrain these inflows. Additionally, lingering concerns over a prolonged global recession may weigh on investor sentiment and appetite for risk assets, he added.
On the other hand, Feroze Azeez, Deputy CEO at Anand Rathi Wealth Ltd, believes geopolitical escalations, central bank interest rate cuts, and potential US tariff sanctions could act as tailwinds for FPI inflows into Indian markets.
As of now, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have made a net investment of over Rs 5,052 crore in the Indian equity markets and Rs 1.12 lakh crore in the debt market (till December 24), as per data available with the depositories.
This follows the extraordinary Rs 1.71 lakh crore net investment in equities in 2023, driven by optimism surrounding India’s resilient economic fundamentals. In contrast, 2022 witnessed the worst net outflow of Rs 1.21 lakh crore due to aggressive rate hikes by global central banks.
Prior to the outflow, FPIs invested money in the last three years (2019, 2020 and 2021).
In 2024, FPI outflows were recorded during the months of January, April, May, October, and November.
The drastic decline in FPIs flow in 2024 stems from a combination of global and domestic factors. The reduced inflow into Indian equities was primarily driven by elevated valuations, prompting investors to redirect their investment to attractively valued Chinese equities, Himanshu Srivastava, associate director of manager research, Morningstar Investment Research India, said.
This shift was further fuelled by a series of stimulus measures introduced by China to bolster economic growth, making its equities increasingly appealing.
In addition, heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, increased risk aversion, pushing investors toward safer assets. Caution ahead of the US Presidential election and concerns over fewer US Fed rate cuts next year, despite this year’s 100 bps cuts, further dampened sentiment.