‘Growth forecast of 6.8-7.2% neither conservative nor overly optimistic’

New Delhi: Growth projection made in the Economic Survey 2025-2026 of 6.8-7.2 per cent range for FY27 is neither conservative nor overly optimistic, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said on Friday.

At this projected rate, India would still retain the fastest growing major economy in the world.

However, the FY27 estimated growth would be lower than the 7.4 per cent pegged for the current financial year as per the First Advance Estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO).

Multilateral funding agencies have projected much lower growth for India with 6.4 per cent growth pegged by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), 6.5 per cent by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for the next financial year.

Nageswaran said whether some number is conservative or optimistic also depends on the global context in which we are able to anticipate these numbers.

At the moment, he said, “the practice of conservatism and then adjusting the numbers as the reality unfolds is something that has served us well. Therefore, we feel right now 6.8 to 7.2 per cent range is neither conservative nor overly optimistic.”

Talking about headwind for the growth, Nageswaran said it is mostly geopolitical, growth in private credit, and also financial market risks would have an impact.

On the depreciating rupee, he said, it has already become attractive because it is not in line with fundamentals.

“Fundamentals are very strong, and the rupee has been depreciating because of capital flow concerns...if the trade uncertainty resolves itself with the United States, then capital flows will definitely become stronger and will improve,” he said.

Asked for any timeline by which the situation would reverse, he said it is not particularly possible to be very precise in these matters.

The Economic Survey 2025-26 tabled in Parliament on Thursday said the value of the rupee, which has slipped to the 92 per dollar mark, does not accurately reflect India’s stellar economic fundamentals.

“In other words, the rupee, therefore, is punching below its weight,” it said, adding investor reluctance to commit funds to India warrants examination at a time when inflation is under control and growth outlook is favourable.

India depends on foreign capital flows to maintain a healthy balance of payments.

“The Indian rupee underperformed in 2025. India runs a trade deficit in goods. Its net trade surplus in services and remittances is not enough to offset it... When they run drier, rupee stability becomes a casualty,” said the pre-Budget document tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

The rupee hit an all-time low of 92.02 against the American currency on Friday before settling with a slight gain.

On Thursday, the currency settled flat at its lowest-ever closing level of 91.99 against the greenback. The rupee recorded its previous all-time low intraday level at 92-a-dollar on January 23.

The Survey observed that the growth is good; outlook remains favourable; inflation is contained; rainfall and agricultural prospects are supportive; external liabilities are low; banks are healthy; liquidity conditions are comfortable; credit growth is respectable; corporate balance sheets are strong; and the overall flow of funds to the commercial sector is robust.