On Wednesday morning, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) spokesperson Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi startled many media pundits by saying that the outcome of the Karnataka polls, the party’s worst performance in the last 24 years, has not shocked him. For the principal Opposition party of the country, which five years back had registered a very significant presence South of the Vindhayas, the defeat could be debilitating in the run up to the 2014 general elections.
The Congress ended the day winning 121 out of the 223 seats which went to polls, getting a clear majority in the 224-member house. The ruling BJP managed to salvage some respect having a tie with the Janata Dal (Secular) for the second position with 40 seats. BJP rebel BS Yeddyurappa’s party managed six seats and others and independents got 16 seats. The BJP fared poorly both in the urban and rural areas across the state.
Having rightly upped the ante against corruption at the Congress-ruled Centre and put the government on the back-foot, the BJP could have done better than putting up an insipid fight in its now demolished southern fortress and claim that the results do not shock them. The party’s defeat in Karnataka, more than the rebellion of ousted chief minister BS Yeddyurappa, is grounded in the factionalism in the central leadership, which in turn promoted indiscipline, dissidence, secession, mal-governance and finally harakiri.
The Congress, on the other hand, went to the polls with a well-crafted strategy. It risked the isolation of former chief minister SM Krishna and created a caste combination which could counter the electoral influence of dominant communities like the Vokkaliggas and the Lingayats. While the Vokkaliggas identified largely with former prime minister HD Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (Secular), the Lingayats had their loyalty split between the BJP and Yeddyurappa’s Karnataka Janata Party.
In creating a leadership consisting of backward classes leader K Siddaramaiah and Dalit veterans Mallikarjun Kharge and G Parameshwara, the Congress managed to put up a rainbow alliance of other backward classes, dalits and minorities. The combination helped them reap a huge electoral harvest as the dominant political communities – Vokkaliggas and Lingayats – got isolated. It would be interesting to watch whether the Congress high command would give the state’s leadership to those who struggled to regain the lost turf or handover the reigns to a 10, Janpath lackey.
The challenge before the Congress is to replicate this combination north of the Vindhyas when the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Delhi go to polls in winters this year. The huge victory which the party got in Karnataka is not alone about the right caste combination but also people coming out to vote against a government which failed to deliver. The December polls would have the performance of two BJP-run and equal number of Congress-run governments on test.
The next round of polls have the potential to build the momentum for the 2014 general elections as the contest is going to be held in the states where the BJP and the Congress are the major stake-holders.
With the Congress completely ousted from Bihar and the BJP from Uttar Pradesh, the performance of the two parties in the remaining four Hindi heartland states would draw the contours of the pre-poll and post-poll alliances which would help formation of government at the Centre in the summer of 2014.
The Congress ended the day winning 121 out of the 223 seats which went to polls, getting a clear majority in the 224-member house. The ruling BJP managed to salvage some respect having a tie with the Janata Dal (Secular) for the second position with 40 seats. BJP rebel BS Yeddyurappa’s party managed six seats and others and independents got 16 seats. The BJP fared poorly both in the urban and rural areas across the state.
Having rightly upped the ante against corruption at the Congress-ruled Centre and put the government on the back-foot, the BJP could have done better than putting up an insipid fight in its now demolished southern fortress and claim that the results do not shock them. The party’s defeat in Karnataka, more than the rebellion of ousted chief minister BS Yeddyurappa, is grounded in the factionalism in the central leadership, which in turn promoted indiscipline, dissidence, secession, mal-governance and finally harakiri.
The Congress, on the other hand, went to the polls with a well-crafted strategy. It risked the isolation of former chief minister SM Krishna and created a caste combination which could counter the electoral influence of dominant communities like the Vokkaliggas and the Lingayats. While the Vokkaliggas identified largely with former prime minister HD Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (Secular), the Lingayats had their loyalty split between the BJP and Yeddyurappa’s Karnataka Janata Party.
In creating a leadership consisting of backward classes leader K Siddaramaiah and Dalit veterans Mallikarjun Kharge and G Parameshwara, the Congress managed to put up a rainbow alliance of other backward classes, dalits and minorities. The combination helped them reap a huge electoral harvest as the dominant political communities – Vokkaliggas and Lingayats – got isolated. It would be interesting to watch whether the Congress high command would give the state’s leadership to those who struggled to regain the lost turf or handover the reigns to a 10, Janpath lackey.
The challenge before the Congress is to replicate this combination north of the Vindhyas when the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Delhi go to polls in winters this year. The huge victory which the party got in Karnataka is not alone about the right caste combination but also people coming out to vote against a government which failed to deliver. The December polls would have the performance of two BJP-run and equal number of Congress-run governments on test.
The next round of polls have the potential to build the momentum for the 2014 general elections as the contest is going to be held in the states where the BJP and the Congress are the major stake-holders.
With the Congress completely ousted from Bihar and the BJP from Uttar Pradesh, the performance of the two parties in the remaining four Hindi heartland states would draw the contours of the pre-poll and post-poll alliances which would help formation of government at the Centre in the summer of 2014.