Slight delay in onset of monsoon over Kerala; arrival likely on Jun 4: IMD

New Delhi: A slight delay is expected in the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala and it is likely to arrive by June 4, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.

The southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1, with a standard deviation of about 7 days.

Scientists, however, said the slight delay is unlikely to impact agriculture and total rainfall over the country.

“This year, the southwest monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be slightly delayed. The monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on June 4 with a model error of 4 days,” the MeT office said in a statement.

The monsoon arrived in the southern state on May 29 last year, June 3 in 2021 and June 1 in 2020.

The advance of the southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by the onset over Kerala and is an important indicator characterising the transition from the hot and dry season to the rainy season.

The IMD had last month said India is expected to get normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season despite the evolving El Nino conditions.

Rainfed agriculture is a critical component of India’s agricultural landscape, with 52 per cent of the net cultivated area relying on this method. It accounts for about 40 per cent of the country’s total food production, making it a crucial contributor to India’s food security and economic stability.

The predicted monsoon onset is within the standard deviation of 7 days. It is unlikely to impact agriculture and overall rainfall over the country, IMD chief M Mohapatra told a national news channel.

“There is no one-to-one relationship between the onset date and the total rainfall over the country during the season. Also, the monsoon arriving early or in late in Kerala doesn’t mean it will cover other parts of the country accordingly. The monsoon is characterised by largescale variabilities and global, regional and local features,” he said.

M Rajeevan, former secretary of the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences, said it is unlikely that the delay is due to Cyclone ‘Mocha’. “Had the cyclone occurred around May 20-May 25, it would have really affected the monsoon. The cyclone is already over.”

“It could be due to insufficient heating over the Indian subcontinent. The progress of the monsoon also depends on other factors such as the phases of Madden-Julian Oscillation and how the El Nino is evolving,” Rajeevan added.

According to Roxy Mathew Koll, climate scientist at Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, a coastal El Nino has already developed in the east Pacific. “It should develop into a mature state by June-July. This can potentially impact the onset, progression and overall distribution of monsoon rainfall. The onset can be weak or delayed, and IMD onset forecast aligns with this.”

He said Cyclone ‘Mocha’ may not have an impact on the monsoon, as it’s much earlier with respect to the monsoon onset.