New Delhi: Northwestern and central India are expected to get relief from the scorching heat after three days due to a fresh western disturbance, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday.
IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra reported that Rajasthan and Gujarat experienced nine to twelve heatwave days, with temperatures reaching 45-50 degrees Celsius.
“Expect relief from the heatwave in northwest and central parts of the country after three days due to a western disturbance and moisture incursion from the Arabian Sea. There could be some thunderstorm activity in northwest India and rain in the western Himalayan region,” Mohapatra said during a virtual press conference.
Delhi, south Haryana, southwest UP, and Punjab recorded five to seven heatwave days, with maximum temperatures ranging from 44 to 48 degrees Celsius. Assam also experienced record-breaking heatwave temperatures on May 25-26.
The IMD attributed the heatwave in northwest India and parts of the central region in the second half of May to a lack of rainfall, stronger dry and warm winds, and an anti-cyclonic circulation over southwest Rajasthan and adjoining Gujarat. Only two of the five western disturbances affecting north India were active.
More heatwave days are expected in June in northwest India and adjacent central regions. Mohapatra predicted above-normal heatwave days in these areas, with four to six heatwave days anticipated, compared to the usual two to three days.
Most of India, except parts of the southern peninsula, is likely to experience normal to above-normal maximum temperatures in June.
Conditions are favourable for the monsoon onset over Kerala within the next five days.
The heatwave has driven India’s power demand to 239.96 gigawatts, the highest so far this season, and it could surpass the all-time high of 243.27 GW recorded in September 2023.
Water storage in 150 major reservoirs in India dropped to 24 per cent of their live storage last week, exacerbating water shortages and affecting hydropower generation.
The IMD predicts above-normal rainfall for India’s core monsoon zone, which includes most of the rain-fed agricultural areas. Northeast India is expected to receive below-normal monsoon rainfall, while central and south peninsular regions are likely to see above-normal rainfall.
The country is anticipated to experience normal rainfall (92-108 per cent of the long-period average of 166.9 mm) in June. Despite normal cumulative rainfall, climate change has led to increased variability, with fewer rainy days but more heavy rain events, resulting in frequent droughts and floods.
The monsoon is critical for India’s agriculture, with 52% of the net cultivated area relying on it. It also replenishes reservoirs essential for drinking water and power generation.
El Nino conditions are currently prevailing, with La Nina expected by August-September. Historically, La Nina following El Nino has led to above-normal or normal monsoon in most years.
The IMD also anticipates the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which brings rain to southern India. The IOD is currently neutral but is expected to turn positive by August.
Below-normal snow cover in the northern hemisphere and Eurasia may also contribute to a favourable monsoon, given the historical inverse relationship between snow levels and monsoon strength.