India’s fertility rate down from 6.2 to under 2 since 1950, will fall to 1.3 in 2050: Lancet Study

New Delhi: According to a new research published in The Lancet journal, India’s fertility rate has seen a significant decrease, from approximately 6.2 in 1950 to just below 2 in 2021. Projections indicate a further decline to 1.29 and 1.04 in 2050 and 2100, respectively.

These figures align with global trends. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) worldwide was over 4.8 children per woman in 1950, which dropped to 2.2 children per woman in 2021. Predictions suggest a further decrease to 1.8 and 1.6 in 2050 and 2100, respectively.

The study revealed that there were 12.9 crore live births globally in 2021, an increase from about 9.3 crore in 1950, but a decrease from the peak of 14.2 crore in 2016.

In India, the number of live births exceeded 1.6 crore in 1950 and 2.2 crore in 2021. This number is expected to decrease to 1.3 crore by 2050.

Despite the global trend of declining fertility, many low-income countries are expected to continue grappling with high fertility issues throughout the 21st century, according to the researchers from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators.

High fertility rates in these low-income regions, especially in certain countries and territories in western and eastern sub-Saharan Africa, will lead to a world divided demographically. Most children will be born in some of the world’s poorest regions, with the share of global live births in low-income countries projected to nearly double from 18 per cent in 2021 to 35 per cent by 2100. The researchers also warned that worsening climate change could exacerbate the challenges faced by these high-fertility, low-income countries, including increased frequency of floods, droughts, and extreme heat. These conditions pose threats to food, water, and resource security and significantly increase the risk of heat-related illnesses and death.

The researchers’ latest findings on fertility rates will have significant impacts on economies, geopolitics, food security, health, and the environment as the global population ages. They highlighted a “clear demographic divide” between the effects experienced by middle-to-high-income regions versus low-income regions.

The team emphasised that unless governments identify innovative solutions or allocate funds to address the challenges of an ageing population, this demographic shift will increasingly strain national health insurance, social security programmes, and healthcare infrastructure.

While a sustained decline in world population may offer opportunities for environmental progress by reducing resource strain and carbon emissions, the researchers acknowledged that these benefits could be offset

by increasing per capita consumption due to economic development.

To limit the concentration of live births in these high-fertility, low-income regions, the researchers recommended improving women’s access to education and contraceptives, identified as the two main drivers of fertility.

Despite the global decline in fertility, the researchers projected “significantly steeper fertility declines in the coming decades” in sub-Saharan Africa through the rapid expansion of education and access to contraceptives.

The GBD study, coordinated by the Institute for Health

Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington (UW), US, is the most extensive and comprehensive effort to quantify health loss across places and over time.