New Delhi: As India gears up for the seven-phase general elections commencing on April 19, the country is also preparing for an intense heatwave. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) anticipates the central and western peninsular regions to bear the brunt of extreme heat during the April to June period.
Union Minister for Earth Sciences, Kiren Rijiju, addressed the issue at a press conference. He highlighted the challenges posed by the extreme weather conditions expected in the next two-and-a-half months, coinciding with the general elections. He emphasised the need for India to prepare in advance, given its status as the world’s most populous country and the extreme weather conditions it faces.
IMD Director General, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, warned of the increased public vulnerability to heatwaves due to the expected rise in outdoor activities during the 2024 general elections. He cautioned that the increased exposure could lead to a higher risk of heatwave-related health issues among voters and election staff.
Mohapatra further stated that above-normal maximum temperatures are likely across most parts of the country during the April-June period, particularly in central and western peninsular India. However, some regions like the western Himalayan region, northeastern states, and north Odisha might experience normal to below-normal maximum temperatures.
He predicted an increase in heatwave days over most plains during April-June, with different parts of the country expected to experience ten to twenty days of heatwave against the usual four to eight days. Regions like Gujarat, central Maharashtra, north Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, north Chhattisgarh, and Andhra Pradesh are likely to bear the brunt of the heatwaves.
Despite the weakening of El Nino conditions, the periodic warming of waters in the central Pacific Ocean, these conditions are expected to persist through April and May. This aligns with the forecast of above-normal maximum temperatures and heatwave conditions in India. The El Nino conditions, associated with unusually dry and warm conditions over southeast Asia, have led to record temperatures and extreme events worldwide, with 2023 being the warmest year on record.
The IMD anticipates the onset of La Nina conditions, associated with abundant monsoon rain in India, by the second half of the monsoon season.
The Met office predicts above-normal maximum temperatures over most parts of the country in April, particularly over central south India. However, some regions like the western Himalayan region and northeastern states might experience normal to below-normal maximum temperatures in April.
Above-normal heatwave days are likely over many areas in central India and the adjoining areas of the northern plains and south India in April. These regions are expected to experience two to eight days of heatwave against the usual one to three days.
Regions like Gujarat, Maharashtra, north Karnataka, Odisha, west Madhya Pradesh, and Andhra Pradesh are predicted to face the worst impact of heatwaves in April.
The IMD forecasts the country to receive normal rainfall (88-112 per cent of the long-period average of 39.2 mm) in April.
Most parts of the northwest, and some parts of central and north peninsular India are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. However, below-normal rainfall is expected over the east and the west coasts, parts of east, northeast, and south peninsular India.
The IMD warns that elevated temperatures pose significant risks, especially for vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, and those with pre-existing health conditions, as they are more susceptible to heat-related illnesses such as heat exhaustion and heatstroke.
The Lok Sabha polls in India will take place in seven phases between April 19 and June 1.