IMD predicts 108% of average rainfall for June, relief from heat in sight

New Delhi: India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall in June, potentially bringing relief from high temperatures in most regions, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

At a press briefing on Tuesday, M Ravichandran, Secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, announced that rainfall in June is projected to exceed 108 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) of 166.9 mm. “Most parts of the country are expected to experience normal to above-normal rainfall,” Ravichandran said. However, he cautioned that parts of southern peninsular India and some regions in the northwest and northeast could see below-normal precipitation.

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra highlighted the likely impact of the anticipated rains on temperatures. “Due to this expected rainfall, maximum temperatures in most areas may remain normal to below-normal,” he noted, adding that exceptions may occur in northwest and northeast India where higher daytime temperatures could persist.

Mohapatra also said that minimum temperatures might remain above normal across much of the country due to increased cloud cover, except for regions in central India and the adjoining southern Peninsula.

For the entire June to September monsoon period, the IMD forecasts rainfall at 106 per cent of the 50-year average of 87 cm. According to IMD parameters, rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent of this average is categorised as ‘normal’.

Region-wise, central India and the southern peninsular region are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, while the northeast could record below-normal levels. Normal rainfall is anticipated in the northwest.

The monsoon core zone, covering states like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, and Odisha, is also predicted to receive above-normal rain. These areas heavily depend on monsoon showers for agriculture.

Still, certain pockets, including Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, and parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal, may record lower-than-average rainfall. Some regions in Punjab, Haryana, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu may also see isolated deficits.

This year, the southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 24 — its earliest onset since 2009 — and reached Mumbai 16 days ahead of schedule, the earliest since 1950. While early onset is notable, Mohapatra clarified, “The timing of the monsoon’s arrival does not determine the overall seasonal rainfall.”

The monsoon remains crucial for India’s agriculture sector, which supports nearly 42 per cent of the population and contributes 18.2 per cent to the GDP.mpost