New Delhi: The sudden death of Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar, 66, in a plane crash near Baramati on Wednesday has triggered a far-reaching political churn in the state, unsettling the ruling coalition, throwing the Nationalist Congress Party into uncertainty, and reopening questions about leadership, succession and alliances in a region that plays a decisive role in national politics.
Ajit Pawar was not merely another coalition partner in the BJP-led Mahayuti government. Over the past three years, he had emerged as the fulcrum around which the alliance functioned, providing numbers, administrative heft and a critical Maratha face to a government dominated by the Bharatiya Janata Party. His absence leaves a vacuum that is expected to reshape equations within the ruling dispensation and beyond.
Ajit Pawar’s political journey had fundamentally altered Maharashtra politics. Breaking away from his uncle Sharad Pawar in 2023, he split the NCP, retained the party name and its clock symbol, and led his faction into government with the BJP and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena. As Deputy Chief Minister under Devendra Fadnavis, he brought with him 41 MLAs, largely drawn from western Maharashtra, a region where cooperative institutions and caste networks continue to exert deep influence.
Numerically, the BJP and Shiv Sena together hold enough seats to cross the majority mark of 145 in the 288-member Assembly, with the BJP having 132 MLAs and the Shiv Sena 57. Yet Ajit Pawar’s bloc served as an important hedge against instability, insulating the government from internal dissent and future political shocks. His authority over legislators and reputation as a tough negotiator had helped keep his faction intact within the Mahayuti.
With that authority gone, political analysts expect renewed negotiations within the coalition. Ajit Pawar had often acted as the bridge between the BJP and its allies, including managing tensions with the Shiv Sena. His death is likely to encourage the BJP to reassess power equations within the alliance and rework its understanding with Shinde’s camp, while also keeping a close watch on the loyalties of the 41 NCP MLAs he once commanded.
The most immediate impact, however, is being felt within the Ajit Pawar-led NCP itself. Built almost entirely around his personality, organisational grip and access to resources, the party now faces an existential crisis. Beyond him, there is no single leader with statewide authority or comparable mass appeal.
Veteran leaders such as Praful Patel, the national working president; Sunil Tatkare, the Maharashtra unit chief and the party’s lone Lok Sabha MP; and Chhagan Bhujbal, an OBC face with influence in Nashik, bring experience but remain region-specific in their reach. Others, including Anil Deshmukh in Vidarbha and Nawab Malik in Mumbai, continue to be weighed down by legal and political challenges. As one observer noted, the party’s long-standing weakness, the absence of a commanding second line of leadership, has now been laid bare.
A key question hovering over the NCP’s immediate future is whether Ajit Pawar’s wife, Sunetra Pawar, can emerge as a new centre of gravity within the party. A Rajya Sabha MP elected last year with BJP support, Sunetra Pawar has acquired visibility and access to national power corridors, but her political profile remains limited compared with her late husband’s statewide reach. She lost the 2024 Lok Sabha election from Baramati to Supriya Sule, underlining the challenge of converting organisational backing into popular support. Within the Ajit Pawar-led NCP, she is regarded as an influential figure and a potential unifying presence in a moment of emotional flux, yet senior leaders privately acknowledge that she lacks administrative experience and a mass base. For now, her role is expected to be more that of a stabilising interlocutor rather than a commanding leader, even as rival camps watch closely to see whether sympathy and continuity politics can translate into a larger leadership claim in the months ahead. His sons, Parth Pawar and Jay Pawar, both of whom unsuccessfully contested the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, are yet to establish independent political identities. This has left party legislators and local leaders uncertain about whom to rally behind as local body elections and organisational contests loom.
Ironically, Ajit Pawar’s death may offer political space to the very leader he had worked to marginalise. For years, Ajit had been the most effective counter to Sharad Pawar’s influence, drawing away MLAs, cooperative leaders and district-level cadres, particularly in Pune and Baramati. His decision to align with the BJP had also dented Sharad Pawar’s standing as a consistent opponent of the saffron party.
Now, with the breakaway faction leaderless, Sharad Pawar is widely seen as the only figure with the stature to attract defected legislators back into the fold. Despite strained personal relations in recent years, Ajit Pawar was groomed politically by his uncle, and his death has triggered visible sympathy among party workers and supporters. Grassroots leaders, especially in western Maharashtra, are expected to reassess their loyalties in the absence of the younger Pawar’s patronage.
The timing is significant. In recent months, signs of a thaw between the two NCP factions had already emerged. They contested civic polls together in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad, and talks of a broader reunion were underway. Ajit Pawar himself had struck a conciliatory note, saying, “The workers of both parties want to unite. The two NCPs are together now. All tensions in our family have ended.”
NCP leaders had even hinted at a scenario where a united party could continue within the National Democratic Alliance framework, with carefully negotiated roles for both factions. That political calculus has now been disrupted, but the logic driving reunification may have strengthened, given the leadership vacuum in Ajit Pawar’s camp.
Ajit Pawar’s influence extended well beyond the Assembly. He was the undisputed power centre in Baramati and Pune district, exercising control over sugar factories, dairy unions and credit cooperatives that form the backbone of rural politics in western Maharashtra. His death is expected to unsettle these networks, which thrived on his direct access to power and administrative clout.
In the recently concluded civic elections, the NCP contested separately from its Mahayuti allies and won 167 seats across 29 municipal corporations. Yet it suffered heavy defeats to the BJP in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad, where it had aligned with Sharad Pawar’s faction. In the 165-member Pune Municipal Corporation, the BJP won 119 seats, while the NCP secured 27 and the NCP (SP) just three. In Pimpri-Chinchwad, the BJP bagged 84 of 102 seats, Ajit Pawar’s party won 37 and Sharad Pawar’s faction drew a blank.
These results had already raised questions about the NCP’s organisational strength. Ajit Pawar’s death, coming as Zilla Parishad and municipal council elections approach, adds to the uncertainty. As senior journalist Prakash Akolkar observed, both NCP factions are contesting the February 5 Zilla Parishad polls together on the clock symbol, effectively signalling an unofficial merger.
For the BJP, Ajit Pawar’s demise is both a challenge and an opportunity. While the immediate task is to ensure that his MLAs do not drift toward Sharad Pawar, the party is also well placed numerically to manage the government even if the NCP’s role diminishes. Several of Ajit Pawar’s followers are already seen as politically vulnerable and may gravitate toward the BJP in search of security and influence.
As one political observer put it, “Ultimately, the BJP will eat up the NCP,” reflecting a widely held belief that the party prefers gradual absorption of allies rather than abrupt takeovers.
For now, however, the mood within the NCP remains one of shock and grief. At the party’s Delhi office, leaders gathered to pay tribute, recalling Ajit Pawar’s administrative grip and personal warmth. “The general feeling was disbelief,” said a party functionary. “People kept saying they couldn’t believe that Ajit Dada was gone.”
Beyond the immediate mourning, Ajit Pawar’s death has altered the trajectory of Maharashtra politics. It has weakened the Mahayuti’s internal balance, reopened the door for Sharad Pawar’s resurgence, and left the NCP confronting a future without its most powerful organiser.