China’s population shrinks for fourth straight year as births hit a record low

Beijing/New Delhi: China’s population fell for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, underscoring mounting demographic pressure on the world’s second-most populous country despite an expanding package of government incentives aimed at encouraging families to have more children. New data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed China’s total population declined by 3.39 million to 1.4049 billion, down from 1.4083 billion a year earlier, as births dropped to their lowest level since nationwide records began in 1949.

Only 7.92 million babies were born in 2025, down from 9.54 million in 2024, a decline of 1.62 million or 17 per cent, according to the NBS. The figure broke the previous record low set in 2023, the year India overtook China to become the world’s most populous country, according to a United Nations report. Officials and analysts say the continuing slide highlights the long-lasting impact of decades of strict birth controls, as well as economic and social pressures that deter couples from having children.

The 2025 data also point to a sharp change compared with the slight uptick in births recorded in 2024, suggesting that the previous increase did not represent a sustained reversal. Births had fallen seven years in a row through 2023. Measured by the birth rate, China registered 5.63 births per 1,000 people in 2025, the lowest level on record since 1949. While births sank, deaths remained high. About 11.31 million people died in 2025, one of the highest totals in five decades. The South China Morning Post reported that last year marked the steepest annual population decline on record apart from the period of China’s devastating famine from 1959 to 1961.

The decline in births is stark compared with a decade ago. Birth rates in 2025 were about 10 million lower than they were a decade earlier, a trend widely attributed to the long-term effects of the former one-child policy. That policy, enforced for decades by the ruling Communist Party, restricted most families to a single child and often included penalties for violations, shaping two generations of only children and altering family structures.

Chinese leaders have rolled back those limits in stages as concerns mounted over a shrinking workforce and rising old-age dependency. China ended the one-child policy in 2016 and allowed couples to have two children, but officials later concluded that the policy shift did not change behaviour enough. In 2021, China revised the rules again to permit three children per couple.

A key problem for policymakers is that the factors influencing childbearing have evolved. Many families cite the cost of raising a child in a highly competitive society, including housing, education and childcare expenses, as major barriers. Those pressures have become more pronounced amid an economic downturn that has weighed on household finances and confidence. Some analysts also noted that 2025 was the Year of the Snake under the Chinese zodiac, considered by some couples to be an unfavourable year to have a child, potentially affecting birth timing decisions.

China’s fertility rate has also remained low. The government last officially reported it at 1.3 in 2020, far below the roughly 2.1 children per woman generally considered necessary to maintain population size. Experts now estimate fertility is around 1.

“The pace of the decline of population in China is striking, particularly in the absence of major shocks,” Su Yue, principal economist for China at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told the South China Morning Post. Su said reluctance among young people to marry, combined with rising economic pressures, has been a major drag on births, pointing in particular to the perceived career and income costs women may face when stepping away from employment to have children.

“The data should serve as a strong signal for policymakers to place greater emphasis on domestic structural reforms,” Su said, calling for a stronger policy response on fertility given the risks posed by a shrinking population and a smaller consumer base in future.

Authorities have launched a range of measures to make child-rearing more affordable and socially supported. In recent years, China introduced policies including a national childcare subsidy scheme that can offer up to 10,800 RMB (about $1,534) per year for each child. Separately, the government announced cash subsidies of 3,600 yuan (around $500) per child to families. China has also adjusted tax policy in ways designed to nudge behaviour. Beijing increased the condom tax as part of efforts aimed at boosting births. In 2025, contraceptives, including condoms, were removed from a value-added tax exemption list, making them subject to a 13 per cent tax effective Jan. 1. At the same time, kindergartens and daycare centres were added to the tax-exemption list, along with matchmaking services.

The demographic challenge is amplified by rapid ageing. Official data show that at the end of 2024, the number of people aged 60 and above reached 310 million. Another set of figures placed the number of over-60s at 323 million, representing about 23 per cent of the population. By 2035, that age group is projected to exceed 400 million. As the working-age population shrinks, economists warn that fewer workers will be available to support the growing elderly population, complicating China’s push to shift toward a more consumption-driven and high-tech economy.

Some analysts have linked last year’s drop in births to marriage trends. Yuan Xin, vice-president of the China Population Association, said births fell alongside a sharp decline in marriages. China’s mainland registered 6.106 million marriages in 2024, down more than 20 per cent from the previous year, marking the lowest level since 1980, Yuan said. However, through the first three quarters of 2025, China recorded an 8.5 per cent year-on-year increase in marriage registrations, with analysts suggesting that a range of pro-marriage policies were starting to show results.

Long-term projections point to continued population decline if current fertility patterns persist. In 2024, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) estimated that China’s population could fall to 633 million by 2100, reflecting the scale of the demographic shift now underway.with agency inputs