New Delhi: The BJP's strength in the Rajya Sabha fell on Saturday following the retirement of four nominated members: Rakesh Sinha, Ram Shakal, Sonal Mansingh, and Mahesh Jethmalani. These members, appointed by President Droupadi Murmu on the advice of the ruling party, had aligned with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government. Their retirement reduces the BJP's seat count to 86 in the Rajya Sabha, bringing the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) down to 101 seats, which is below the majority mark of 113 in the 245-member House. Currently, the Rajya Sabha has 225 members. The Congress-led INDIA bloc holds 87 seats, with the Congress itself having 26. Other significant members include Bengal's ruling Trinamool with 13 seats, and the Aam Aadmi Party and DMK, each holding 10 seats.
Impact on Government's Legislative Strategy
With the BJP's numbers reduced, the government now relies on support from non-NDA parties such as the AIADMK from Tamil Nadu and the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) from Andhra Pradesh to pass bills in the Rajya Sabha. Assuming the BJP secures 15 votes from its NDA allies, it will need at least 13 more votes to achieve a majority. The YSRCP, which has 11 seats, has previously provided issue-based support to the BJP, making their support likely. The AIADMK, despite a strained relationship following their split last December, could also be a potential ally. The Biju Janata Dal (BJD) of Odisha, with nine seats, had previously supported the BJP but has distanced itself after recent state election losses to the BJP.
Vacant Seats and Future Prospects
There are currently 20 vacant seats in the Rajya Sabha, including 11 that are expected to be filled through elections this year. These seats include two each in Maharashtra, Assam, and Bihar, and one each in Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, and Tripura. The BJP-led alliance is likely to win seven of these seats from Assam, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Tripura. Additionally, if the alliance remains united in Maharashtra, it could win two more seats there. This would potentially give the BJP nine additional seats. Combined with the support of nominated members and the YSRCP, this would enable the BJP to cross the majority threshold. Moreover, four seats are vacant in Jammu and Kashmir, with an Assembly election expected by September 30, in line with a Supreme Court order. The Telangana seat is expected to be won by the Congress, which would bolster its position to claim the Leader of the Opposition post in the Rajya Sabha, enhancing its influence in both Houses.