‘Strong advantage’ for Trinamool in Malatipur, Congress yet to nominate

Malda: The Trinamool Congress (TMC) has renominated Abdur Rahim Boxi from the Malatipur Assembly Constituency. Recent electoral data suggests that the ruling party has entered the contest with a significant advantage in this Constituency. In a seat historically shaped by minority voting patterns and bipolar competition, past results indicate a strong consolidation of support in favour of the TMC in recent years.

A closer look at voting trends highlights a dramatic shift since 2016. In the 2016 Assembly election, the contest was more fragmented, with Congress securing 32.27 per cent of the vote, closely followed by the RSP at 30.62 per cent, while TMC lagged behind at 25.46 per cent.

However, this equation changed sharply in subsequent elections.

By the 2021 Assembly election, TMC’s vote share surged to a commanding 68.02 per cent, while Congress slipped drastically to 10.69 per cent. The BJP emerged as the second-largest party with 18.45 per cent, but remained far behind TMC by 91,949 votes. Political analysts attribute this turnaround to consolidation of minority votes and the party’s grassroots organisational strength.

The trend continued in parliamentary elections as well. In 2019, Congress led with 38 per cent vote share, followed by TMC at 34.7 per cent and BJP at 20.9 per cent, indicating a competitive triangular contest. However, in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, Congress again led with 42.88 per cent, while TMC secured 34.1 per cent and BJP trailed at 19.95 per cent. Despite Congress’ parliamentary edge, experts note that Assembly elections in Malatipur have consistently favoured TMC in recent cycles.

“The data clearly shows that while Congress performs strongly in parliamentary elections, TMC dominates Assembly contests due to better booth-level management and welfare outreach,” said a political analyst.

Speculation continues over whether Congress will field former MP Mausam Noor, whose return to the party has sparked interest.

Analysts believe her candidature could revive Congress’ prospects, especially given its strong Parliamentary vote share.

However, TMC leaders remain confident. “The 2021 result reflects people’s trust in our development work. That support base remains intact,” said Boxi. A senior TMC functionary added: “Our 68 per cent vote share is not just a number—it reflects deep-rooted public backing.”

With BJP yet to establish itself as a decisive force despite marginal gains, the primary contest is likely to remain between TMC and Congress. Yet, if past Assembly trends hold, TMC appears firmly positioned to retain Malatipur.