Kolkata: With the 2026 Assembly polls approaching, a look back shows TMC’s easy 2021 win with 215 seats, while BJP’s rise from 3 seats in 2016 to 77 established it as the main opposition, despite its “Ab ki bar, 200 par” campaign.
In North Bengal, the BJP carved out a stronghold. Districts like Darjeeling, Jalpaiguri, Alipurduar and Cooch Behar recorded higher BJP vote shares, reflecting consolidation among hill voters, Rajbanshis and sections of tribal communities. Kalimpong too leaned towards the BJP. However, North Dinajpur remained with the TMC.
Central Bengal painted a different picture, with TMC dominating Murshidabad and Malda, crossing 50 per cent vote share through Muslim voter consolidation and Congress-Left decline. Birbhum also saw TMC strength, while East Burdwan and Nadia remained TMC-led, with BJP posing a notable challenge.
The Junglemahal and western belt emerged as a key battleground. BJP performed well in Bankura and Purulia, aided by ST and SC support, while TMC regained Jhargram and West Midnapore through welfare schemes and tribal outreach.
In southern and urban-industrial districts, TMC held firm: Kolkata gave an overwhelming mandate, North and South 24-Parganas remained strongholds, and Hooghly leaned TMC, though BJP stayed relevant. Howrah and West Burdwan saw tight contests, reflecting a competitive bipolar landscape.
Social coalitions help explain these district trends. In Junglemahal, TMC regained ST support through welfare schemes, offsetting BJP’s Lok Sabha gains. SC voters remained split, with BJP strong in border and northern districts. The Matua community in Nadia and North 24-Parganas leaned toward BJP, keeping these areas competitive, while Rajbanshi voters in North Bengal strongly backed BJP.
In the hills, despite attempts by TMC to align with local forces, BJP maintained an edge, benefiting from support among Gorkha voters and alliances with regional outfits.
Overall, the 2021 election map shows West Bengal divided regionally and socially, BJP strong in North Bengal and western districts, while TMC built broad support across southern, central, and minority-heavy areas.