Summits didn't yield much

The situation in the Middle East was high on the agenda of two summits—one sponsored by the United States in Warsaw and, the other by Russian President Vladimir Putin with his counterparts from Iran and Turkey in Sochi last week.

At the summit in the Polish capital Warsaw, attended by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu along with foreign ministers of some 60 countries including leading Arab nations like Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Jordan, Egypt, and Iran among others was a clear priority to the agenda of the US which sent Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and President Donald Trump's senior advisor and son-in-law Jared Kushner.

Most of the European nations snubbed the conference by either not attending it or by sending lower-level diplomats. The European Union shunned the conference entirely. "You cannot achieve stability in the Middle East without confronting Iran. It's just not possible…there are malignant influences in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq…The three Hs—the Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah—these are real threats," Pompeo said, referring to the key groups in the region supported by Iran.

Supporting the US stand, the Israeli Prime Minister said that the 'three H' are the real threats and peace in the region cannot prevail without pushing back against Iran, Israel's arch-rival in the region.

The conference was an attempt by the US to have an anti-Tehran alliance that would create a NATO-like army among the Sunni Arabs against Iran. The Trump administration wants to bring Israel and the Sunni Arab states closer to each other and see them working together against Shiite Iran and Hezbollah, two common enemies.

America appears to be setting up a new phase of escalation with Iran as its economic sanctions have only partially isolated Iran politically and diplomatically. Iran was not invited and its ally Russia declined to attend it.

The summit not only increased the US-Iran tension but also intensified the rift between the US and the EU and within the EU. It rendered any prospects for a rapprochement all the more implausible.

Standing on European soil, Vice President Mike Pence severely criticised the EU effort led by Germany, France, and the UK to create an alternative payment system for legal trade with Iran, calling it an "ill-advised step that will only strengthen Iran, weaken the EU and create still more distance between Europe and America."

At the same time, he tried to appease the Europeans by telling the delegates that the US was not seeking a "regime change" in Iran now, a radical shift from the previous administrations.

The joint statement issued after the meeting did not even mention Iran, suggesting that the Trump administration's anti-Iran meet was an abject failure, at least when evaluating its objective of creating an anti-Iran alliance.

The conference may not have achieved the purpose with which the US had sponsored it but it had resulted in the Israeli Prime Minister standing out as the clear winner of the seemingly failed summit.

It provided Netanyahu with much-desired optics of sharing the stage with Arab leaders. There was no effort to address the Palestinian issue clearly. This is raising doubts whether the Palestinian issue is a priority for the Arab rulers.

There have been reports of Israel's clandestine intelligence and security ties with Sunni countries mainly Arab rulers who are worried about being seen as too close to Israel while the Palestinian issue remained unresolved.

He told the Israeli media that Arab states and Israel are coming together "in order to advance the common interest of war with Iran." However, subsequently, on his twitter account, he changed translation of his comment to read "common interest of combating Iran."

Netanyahu's advocacy for a US-Iran war is neither new nor a secret. Israeli air strike in Syria that result in Iranian casualties increases the likelihood of Iranian retaliation. In the event of such a conflict, the US may drag itself into it, much to Netanyahu's satisfaction to garner political mileage at a time when he is facing both the possibility of a prison sentence on corruption charges and the upcoming elections in April.

Over the past few years, there have been signs about an Arab willingness to publicly engage with Israel. These include Netanyahu's visit to Oman last October, a series of tweets and statements by Bahraini officials in support of Israeli actions against Iran and Hezbollah, Saudi Arabia's all-powerful crown prince Mohammed bin Salman's statement that Israel has the right to exist and two public meetings between Netanyahu and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi.

While the Warsaw conference was going on Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted his counterparts from Turkey and Iran at the Black Sea resort of Sochi to discuss a final settlement of the Syria crisis.

Apart from the situation following US announcement of the withdrawal of its troops from Syria, Putin, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani also discussed setting up a special committee to develop a post-war constitution for Syria and re-building of the war-ravaged country.

They reiterated their commitment to work together in finding a solution to the conflict. The three leaders may not have achieved any substantial results, but they succeeded in keeping the process alive.

(The author is a former Editor of PTI. He has also served as West Asia Correspondent for PTI, based in Bahrain from 1988 to 1995. The views expressed are strictly personal)