Nourishing ties

Prime Minister Modi's two-day visit to Bhutan (August 17-18) gave this tiny Himalayan kingdom the rare privilege of getting some space in India's mainstream media which practically forgot Bhutan after the Doklam stand-off between the Indian and Chinese armies for full 72 days in June 2017. Situated eight thousand feet above sea level, Bhutan's area is just 38,394 sq. kms less than half the size of West Bengal. But its strategic location as a buffer state between India and China provides it with great importance for India. It is a neighbour which India can hardly ignore.

Indian media's total disinterest in Bhutan is shocking. It did not take note of the fact that Bhutan launched its first satellite Bhutan 1, in June last year, not from her closest neighbour India's Sriharikota Space Centre but from the International Space Station at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. Few know in this country know that the present prime minister of Bhutan, Dr Lotay Tshering, is a medical graduate not from any Indian university but from the Dhaka University. Small but significant pointers. Fewer still know how the Bhutanese people felt when the armies of India and China faced each other at Doklam which is in Bhutan.

Indeed, until some time ago the natural destination of the Bhutanese students for higher education was India. This has changed a great deal now. Now Bhutanese students prefer Thailand, Singapore, Australia, even Bangladesh for that matter, to India.

China has been persistently wooing Bhutan. It wants to establish direct diplomatic relations with Bhutan. But India frowns on the proposal to allow the Chinese to open a diplomatic mission at Thimphu. Under the Indo-Bhutan treaty of 1949, Bhutan was to be "guided" by India in foreign affairs. But Bhutan wanted more freedom. Eventually, the 1949 treaty was replaced by a fresh treaty in 2007 which removed the clause on India's right to advise Bhutan on foreign relations.

But actually, India is still the dominating and determining influence on Bhutan's foreign relations. Bhutan wants more freedom in conducting its foreign policy. They want direct diplomatic ties with China in order to strike a balance in their relationship with New Delhi and Beijing. They want direct diplomatic relations with the outside world because it will also enable them to become economically more independent.

These are the problems in the Indo-Bhutan relationship that New Delhi has to take note of and redress. The attitude of the younger generation in Bhutan to India is changing and India can ignore it at its own peril. New Delhi has to also to find out why the younger generation is turning away from India.

China is keen on leaving the Doklam episode behind. It has been warming up to Bhutan at the cost of India. Next to India, China is the second biggest exporter to Bhutan. There is a wide range of goods it exports to Bhutan – from toys to machinery. In 2016, Bhutan's imports from India were valued at Rs 5528.5 crore or 82 per cent of Bhutan's total imports. Its exports to India were worth Rs 3205.2 crore or 90 per cent of its total exports. Comparative data on the volume of Bhutan-China bilateral trade is not available but there is no doubt that Chinese exports to Bhutan are growing rapidly.

Bhutan wants to change its over-dependence on generation and sale of hydro-electricity, almost exclusively (75 per cent) to India. There is a general feeling that India lends money for developing hydropower at a higher interest rate but imports power at a cheaper rate. In fact, Bhutan wants to diversify its trade and reduce its dependence on India.

The plain fact is that India can no longer take Bhutan for granted. In the growing rivalry between India and China, both Nepal and Bhutan occupy important places. New Delhi's economic blockade of Nepal in 2015 did incalculable harm to Indo-Nepal relationship. It pushed Nepal more toward China. India will have to tread with utmost care in its relations with Bhutan. What needs to be realized is the urge of the Bhutanese to come out of the shadow of India and be recognized as a sovereign country with sovereign powers. No economic assistance by India, howsoever bountiful, can satisfy this urge.

The urges and aspirations of the new generations in Bhutan have changed a good deal from those of the older generations. A look at the results of the last general elections held in October last year makes it apparent. Till then, the People's Democratic Party was in power and its leader Tshering Tobgay was the Prime Minister. In last year's election, the newly formed Druk Nyamrup Tshogba (DNT), founded in early 2013, sprang a surprise by defeating the PDP and capturing power. The PDP secured the highest number of votes in the EVM (56,180) against the DNT's 55, 166 but it lost to the DNT when postal ballots were counted.

Initially, there was some uncertainty about the DNT's policy toward India. But Prime Minister Modi's visit has laid these uncertainties to rest. The new government in Bhutan will be friendly to India but India will have to nurture this friendship. Of late, Chinese diplomats based in New Delhi have started paying frequent visits to Bhutan. The silent diplomatic war between India and China to woo Bhutan is on. India has to tread carefully in Bhutan and try to understand the aspirations of the Bhutanese people.

(The views expressed are strictly personal)