Modi upended by SP-Congress alliance

It's a must-win situation for Narendra Modi in Uttar Pradesh. The Prime Minister and his party know that even an indeterminate outcome producing a hung Assembly can raise doubts about their chances in 2019. Since Modi does not want to be a one-time Prime Minister, he has to come out unambiguously on top in UP. For him and the BJP, the stakes have never been higher.

The BJP's 2014 victory was based on the Congress' record of corruption and the policy paralysis in the Manmohan Singh government caused by the conflict between the "accidental" Prime Minister's economic reforms and Congress president Sonia Gandhi's populism. Now, there are no such fortuitous opportunities for the BJP. It will be judged on its performance.

The record so far has been mixed. That Modi still largely retains widespread support is evident from the BJP's successes in local elections across the country. The patience of the customers at the banks post the demonetisation drive also showed that the people have greater faith in him than in the invectives of his opponents. The fact that some of them, like the Trinamool Congress, have piped down shows that they have conceded defeat.

Modi has also succeeded in defanging some of the Sangh Parivar hardliners like the gharwapsi and love jihad brigades and also the gau-rakshaks. But the Hindu Right is a hydra-headed entity. As much is evident not only from the vandalism of a fringe group on the sets of a Sanjay Leela Bhansali film in Jaipur but also the reluctance of the BJP government in Rajasthan to act against the goons.

Evidently, the BJP wants to keep its options open, for no one knows whose show of patriotism can prove handy during a closely fought election. Such expediency can also be seen in the decision of the "autonomous" animal welfare board not to oppose the Tamil Nadu government's legal approval for Jallikattu when an organisation formally committed to the well-being of animals would have been expected to endorse the judicial ban on animal sports.

The board's support for such "sports" was announced by Union commerce minister Nirmala Sitharaman, while another Union minister and animal rights activist, Maneka Gandhi, maintained a deafening silence.

If the BJP favours the stand of the vociferous pro-Jallikattu elements in Tamil Nadu to secure a foothold in the state, the party also wants to strengthen its position – at least among the conservative Hindus – in UP by reiterating its commitments to the construction of the Ram temple.

An emphasis on culture constitutes the basis of these stands. As is known, the temple has been the focal point of the Parivar's "one nation, one people, one culture" agenda. The BJP expects a surge of electoral support for it, mainly of Hindus, if the party succeeds in clearing all hurdles – judicial and political - for building the abode of Lord Ram. There are months and probably years to go before any such step can be taken. But, in the meantime, BJP wants to convey the message that its heart is in the right place.

In Tamil Nadu, on the other hand, the supposedly atheistic AIADMK and other Dravidian parties see the animal sports as a part of their tradition and culture because these have been held for centuries even if using the bulls for acts which are not natural to their way of living as running is for horses.

The emphasis on culture, however, is no more than a tactical ploy. Like the Dravidian parties in Tamil Nadu and the Congress in Karnataka, where it wants to defy judicial diktats to revive buffalo racing, the BJP hopes to reap an electoral harvest in U.P. by its promise on the temple.

In the process, it has shown that it is more nervous than confident because the party's best performance in the state in 2014 was based on its focus on development. If it is banking on the temple this time, the apparent reason is that the development plank has been stolen by the state's young and personable Chief Minister, Akhilesh Yadav.

As long as Akhilesh was engaged in his fratricidal duels with father Mulayam Singh and uncle Shivpal, the BJP could expect a virtual cakewalk. But no longer. Besides, the Samajwadi Party-Congress tie-up recalls the Mahagathbandhan or the alliance which floored the BJP in Bihar. In UP, the two parties with their respective voting percentages of 29.1 and 11.7 are clearly a formidable combine, especially when Akhilesh's break with his father and uncle may enable him to shed some of his government's anti-incumbency burden.

The BJP with its 15 per cent vote share is on a weak wicket in this respect. It also has no leader of note in U.P. who can be the party's chief ministerial candidate. Rajnath Singh has opted out probably because he does not want to be demoted from being Union Home Minister to be a mere Chief Minister. Moreover, since the BJP's victory is by no means certain, he will not like to be held responsible for an indifferent showing. It all depends on Modi. But it is Modi whose aura has diminished since his famous victory three years ago. So it is back to Lord Ram.IPA