Neoteric political paradigm

Political parties in Tamil Nadu are facing unprecedented challenges in the upcoming Lok Sabha election with two dominant parties without their charismatic leaders – M Karunanidhi and J Jayalalitha – who established emotional bonds with their cadres. Every party acknowledges the new setting and requires new strategies. Old formulas of the icon leaders will not work this time. Till the last election, electoral arithmetics proved decisive in the victory of parties. But now, in the absence of the two leaders, electoral chemistry will have a role to play. AIADMK is not its earlier version under Jayalalithaa. At present, it has a symbol and power but it is not enjoying the emotional support of the party cadres as it did during the period of MG Ramachandran and Jayalalithaa. Thus, the present leadership is forming an alliance with smaller parties and liberally giving tickets to them with the aim of getting those votes to win the election. This act itself indicates their comparative weakness.

DMK has been perceived as a winning party since the ruling AIADMK is facing a real threat from TTV Dinakaran who has snatched away a major chunk of the AIADMK cadres. In this case, DMK can easily win the election. The reality is different. The youths involved in Jallikkattu movement have been vehemently critical of both the Dravidian parties as well as BJP. This opportunity has been consistently utilised by Dinakaran.

Even after Jallikkattu agitation, the youth have actively highlighted the critical issues affecting the development of Tamil Nadu on social media. Following Jallikattu, many micro-movements sprang up with the active participation of the public to protect natural resources and the environment from exploitation by the big companies. All those agitations have been tacitly supported by educated youth in Jallikkattu agitation. The Centre's reluctance in sharing resources due to Tamil Nadu, conduct of common entrance test to fill up medical seats in state medical colleges, and releasing of small amount of money to carry out relief and rehabilitation work in the areas affected by Gaja cyclone have made the sensible Tamil population opine that Modi government is unfavourable towards Tamil Nadu. The repeated harassment of AIADMK government through central vigilance and anti-corruption machinery without taking any further action on the evidence and enabling AIADMK government to be in power has made people apprehensive that BJP is no longer a party meant for cleaning India.

Further, AIADMK Ministers, especially the Deputy Chief Minister and Finance Minister O Panneerselvam, openly criticised the Central government for not releasing the funds due to the Tamil Nadu government. Besides that, the teachers and government employees were against the present government as it has not considered even the genuine demands as agreed and promised by Jayalalithaa. Both the Centre and state governments have earned the wrath of the people and almost all political parties are against the state government. To counter the anti-incumbency of both governments, and to face the impact caused by a split by Dinakaran, it is necessary to get the support from various parties to stabilise the position of AIADMK. Against this background, the current AIADMK has to move in a practical track without following the footsteps of Jayalalithaa; forming an alliance with smaller parties.

Around twenty million youth on social media are vehemently rejecting the present day politics, governance, and administration. In this election, they are going to play a crucial rule in deciding the fate of parties. One can ascertain the critical mood of youth from social media. This election will give an answer to the questions such as whether vote bank politics will continue in the changing political scenario; will financial strength decide the course of politics; will the youth force from Jallikkattu influence the voters' choice. The results of this election will indicate whether Tamil Nadu politics will remain the same binary politics with old practices or move a different path and pave way for novel processes and practices.

(The author is a former Professor and Rajiv Gandhi Chair for Panchayati Raj Studies, Gandhigram Rural Institute. The views expressed are strictly personal)