For the sake of power

Israel goes for snap legislative elections on Tuesday to elect the 120 members of the 22nd Knesset after the incumbent Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, failed to form a governing coalition following the polls held last April, the first such failure in the country's history.

In a highly controversial statement ahead of the polls ostensibly aimed at shoring up support of hardline nationalist voters, Netanyahu, 69, declared that he would move to annex the Jordan Valley in the occupied West Bank if he returns to power, a move that could kill any remaining hopes for a two-state solution to the protracted Israeli-Palestinian conflict, long the focus of international diplomacy.

"If I receive from you, citizens of Israel, a clear mandate to do so… today I announce my intention to apply with the formation of the next government Israeli sovereignty over the Jordan Valley and northern Dead Sea," Netanyahu, who is seeking a fifth term as prime minister, said last week in a televised speech.

The Israeli leader, who is fighting for his political survival in a closely contested election, however, made it clear that his plan would not be implemented before the publication of a long-awaited US peace plan for the Middle East and consultations with President Donald Trump.

The Jordan Valley and the northern Dead Sea constitute almost 30 per cent of the West Bank. Some 65,000 Palestinians and about 11,000 illegal Israeli settlers live in the area, most of which is under the Israeli military control in what is referred to as Area C. Israeli right-wing politicians have long viewed the strategic area as part of the territory they would never retreat from.

West Asian countries, including Saudi Arabia, have understandably criticised the announcement while the UN warned Netanyahu that his plan would have no "international legal effect."

"The Secretary General's position has always been clear: unilateral actions are not helpful in the peace process," UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said.

"Any Israeli decision to impose its laws, jurisdictions and administration in occupied West Bank is without any international legal effect," the spokesman said.

The US, which intends to unveil a Middle East peace plan after the Israeli elections, said its policy towards Israeli and the Palestinian territories remains unchanged.

"There is no change in the US policies at this time…We will release our 'Vision for Peace' after the Israeli election and work to determine the best path forward to bring long-sought security, opportunity and stability to the region," a US official was quoted as saying when asked whether the White House supported Netanyahu's move.

Palestinian leaders, including President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh, accuse the Israeli leader of destroying the peace process and asserted that all signed agreements with Israel and obligations resulting from them would end.

Condemning Netanyahu's plan, Arab League foreign ministers said it would undermine any chance of progress towards Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Saudi Arabia said it considered the declaration a "violation of the international law and a very dangerous escalation against the Palestinians."

The international community as a whole should take serious note of Netanyahu's statement and unequivocally condemn it. Their failure to do so will send a wrong message to all parties involved, especially the Palestinians, who have been paying a heavy price because of the Israeli occupation.

As far as the snap poll is concerned, Netanyahu, who leads the right-wing Likud party, is facing Benny Gantz, a former military chief of staff, as his main rival. Gantz leads the centrist Blue and White alliance with the former finance minister and TV personality, Yair Lapid.

On April 9, Netanyahu's party won 36 out of 120 seats, just one more than Gantz' Blue and White.

The Israeli parliament voted to dissolve itself in May after coalition talks hit a wall despite Netanyahu winning the mandate to form the next government.

Israel is witnessing two general elections in one year for the first time since its inception in 1947 and, latest surveys and opinion polls predict virtually the same outcome as that of April election. According to two polls published recently by local media, the Likud is projected to win 32 seats, one more than Blue and White.

Coalition governments are the norm in Israel as no single party has ever won a majority of seats in the Knesset so far. The leader of the party that wins the most seats is usually invited by the Israeli President to form the new government.

If the leader is unable to bring together enough parties to control at least 61 seats in the Knesset, the President may give the task to someone else. This is why the leader of the party that wins the election does not necessarily become the prime minister.

To win another term in office, Netanyahu needs the support of right-wing factions he has previously relied on to clear the 61-seat threshold. Gantz needs the backing of centre-left blocs and the Arab Joint List to garner a majority.

According to latest polls by the Israeli media, a right-wing bloc led by Netanyahu is likely to have 56 seats while Gantz' bloc is expected to muster 55 seats.

In the event of such a scenario, observers say there is a possibility of a unity government bringing together the Likud and the Blue and White.

If that fails, they say the only other option will be to hold a third election, something the Israeli public would not like.

According to a pre-poll survey by the Israeli Democracy Institute, the highest rate of Jewish Israeli voters are in favour of a unity government headed by either Netanyahu or Gantz. The second preference is for a right-wing government headed by Netanyahu.

Palestinian citizens in Israel that include Muslims, Christians and Druze make up one-fifth of the electorate. They form part of the Arab Joint List—an electoral alliance of four Arab parties, which split into two groups before the April vote. They have joined hands for this election.

They could become game changers if they vote in large number. As they tend to vote as a unified bloc, several Jewish political parties are trying to win their votes. They could well determine Netanyahu's fate. A heavy turnout by them could deprive him a majority in Parliament.

Significantly, the Israel-Palestine peace process has not featured prominently in the electoral debates this time. It featured only lightly among political parties and their campaign messaging. Netanyahu's ad-campaign focused on his relationship with US President Donald Trump, a close ally of Israel.

Trump's policies towards Israel include the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital and the transfer of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. He also recognised Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, seized from Syria during the 1967 war.

Arab observers say no matter who is voted to power, the outcome for Palestinians will be the same as both Nethanyahu and Gantz share the same ideology vis-à-vis Palestinians.

(The author is a former Editor of PTI and served as West Asia correspondent for PTI, based in Bahrain from 1988 to 1995. The views expressed are strictly personal)