Diplomatic dichotomy

The US diplomatic and government circles, the Islamic world especially in Egypt, Turkey, Qatar, etc., are agog with the fresh US thinking to designate the 91-year-old Muslim Brotherhood (MB). Such a development surfaced on April 9 this year in Washington DC when the visiting Egyptian dictator, Abdel Fattah al Sisi officially met President Donald Trump and possibly prevailed over him to formally declare the MB as a terrorist organisation. It may be recalled that MB was born in Egypt and present Egyptian ruler Sisi banned its activities after incarcerating Morsi (2013) who was a known MB activist.

Reverting a bit to the recent past, President Trump has been actively thinking of declaring MB a terrorist outfit since 2017. His idea was reviewed and endorsed by the then National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn who also recommended sweeping sanctions against supporters of MB. However, with Flynn's premature exit from his assignment, the idea cooled its heels. In the meantime, Trump's son in law and advisor, Kushner was periodically prodded by Saudi Arabia and the UAE to come down heavily on the MB declaring it as a terrorist entity.

And, coincidentally or otherwise, the day (April 9), Trump had Sisi held talks, Trump had a telephonic talk with Saudi Crown Prince, Muhammad bin Salman and subsequently, on April 18, Trump spoke to UAE Crown Prince, Muhammad bin Zayed. Middle East watchers reckon that these calls were part of Trump plans to target MB as Saudi Arabia has always been wary about MB as it possibly impedes Saudi measures to spread its own hallmark Wahabism and Salafism. MB is thought to be the principal adversary of the Saudi Islamic ideology.

President Trump's thinking on MB has the backing of Secretary of State, Pompeo and National Security Advisor, John Bolton but it is not certain if the acting US defence secretary, Patrick Shanahan is on board or not.

US has been fed with inputs which look credible cosmetically that MB is slowly infiltrating into US facilities and it has considerable adherents within who are suspected to be working at damaging US interests. Hence, declaring MB a terrorist organisation may enable the US establishment to deal with it on a

war footing. However, legal circles in

the US are of the opinion that there

could be legal hurdles which might come in the way in case the US decides to enforce declaring MB a terrorist organisation.

Further, according to American legal experts on the issue, the proposed designation would also mean imposing wide-ranging economic and travel sanctions on companies and individuals even if remotely connected with MB.

MB has a profound influence in countries like Turkey, Malaysia, Kuwait, Tunisia, etc. Meanwhile, a section of the CIA is assessing that their operatives have always had excellent contacts with the countries patronising MB ideology. In the event of MB becoming a pariah by being designated as a terrorist body, intelligence collection and assessments will suffer a significant setback. Also, a fairly large section of the US diplomatic community is not in favour of the designation.

Some knowledgable circles also believe that President Trump, reeling under the spell of powerful Saudi lobby, is also trying to target Iran by caving into Saudi pressure. It would be pertinent to mention here that in 2013, MB was banned in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and in the UAE, but it didn't help and on the contrary, underground undesirable activities continued. Trump also appears inclined towards the designation as he doesn't want to pursue the policy pursued by Obama in keeping MB intact from any US interference.

As regards India, forces sympathetic towards MB might play a 'sympathy card' in case it is designated as a terrorist outfit with sanctions imposed. Organisations like Jamaat-e-Islami, Popular Front of India (PFI), Socialist Democratic Front of India (SDFI), etc., will have a 'legitimate' demand to make noise and try to put pressure for the withdrawal of the proposed designation. They would stand to gain, politically and in terms of religious proliferation. Similar repercussions could be expected in Bangladesh too where Jamat-e-Islami has always been a force to reckon with.

As MB related developments unfold, the Islamic world seems to be heading towards a vertical polarisation with one camp totally pro Wahabi/Salafi and other tilted towards MB. It doesn't look healthy. Also, the US might be alienated for its blatant and complete support to Saudi regime which remains tainted with inhuman executions, Khashoggi murder and excesses in Yemen which the US chooses to ignore. Turkey which is a major promoter of MB will further widen its gulf with the US. The camps are further divided with 75 plus-year-old controversial Libyan leader Khalifa Hifter, going haywire with the unstinted support of the US, Egypt and Saudi Arabia engaged in military actions.

Radicalisation by pro-MB and pro-Wahabi forces have already fallen in place and we see a spurt in global terror acts in the recent months, with an alarming and visible rise in the indoctrination programmes, vigorously initiated by both the camps. The world is relatively unsafe today and any provocation at this juncture, may not yield peace and tranquillity.

All these developments must be seen in the light of a holistic picture. Declaring MB as a terror body can wait to allow more disturbing trends to disappear first but according to indications, President Trump seems to be in a hurry to issue an executive order using his Presidential powers against the MB.

(The author is a security analyst, former National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Mauritius and a columnist. The views expressed are strictly personal)