Desperate measures

Pakistan continues to be reeling under a sense of deep frustration due to its abysmal failure in dealing with developments emanating in the aftermath of August 5 decision of the Indian Parliament, bringing structural changes in the erstwhile J&K making it and Ladakh as the two Union Territories. For the past over three weeks, Pakistan has been crying hoarse in an apparent attempt to internationalise the Kashmir issue by mobilising global support. During Prime Minister Modi's talks (Aug 22) with the French President Emmanuel Marcon, the latter categorically clarified that there was no space for any third-party intervention in Kashmir. This not only signalled growing Indo-French ties but more importantly, it meant a cold shoulder to Pakistan that France was clearly in favour of India on the matter of Kashmir, thus ending any hope that was lingering on part of Pakistan to elicit moral support from France.

Similarly, the US President's message to Prime Minister Imran Khan was loud and clear when he called upon him to tone down rhetoric as part of a de-escalation effort to reduce belligerence amid growing Indo-Pak tension. This is indeed a set back to Pakistan on its ongoing Kashmir propaganda blitz.

Meanwhile, to cover up Pakistan's inability to deal with the emerging developments on Kashmir, Imran Khan gave an interview to the New York Times very recently as part of a concerted PR exercise. There he ruled out any possibility of talks with India clarifying that his earlier overtures should not be seen as weakness or an approach for appeasement. However, this interview was not taken seriously by Pakistan's domestic audience, who is already critical of Imran's leadership for arresting his political adversaries, for muzzling the press, compromising the judiciary, and also for the government's abject failure in tiding over the prevailing economic crisis.

Significantly, in its August 24 issue, prominent Pakistan daily, Dawn says that while Imran's disappointment is understandable due to utter lack of any international support, yet it is doubtful if his decision to drop the idea of talks was sensible. Dawn editorial further opines that there are many international examples where negotiation between rival states or territories have solved the most intractable problems. The daily which often influences public opinion in Pakistan is of the view that any opportunity of dialogue even in the face of Indian ' intransigence' will make things difficult for all. The people at large in Pakistan hope that this was not Imran's last word (in the New York Times interview) on the topic of peace in the region.

More importantly, it is articulated in the paper that Pakistan now needs a strongly coherent and consistent strategy perhaps with inputs from former diplomats who have had the experience of participating in the past in several 'peace' efforts vis a vis India.

These random thoughts, reflected in the Pak print media shows that what Imran Khan and the military establishment thinks to address the Kashmir issue is largely conflicting with the Pakistani psyche. With a snub from Trump, Putin, Marcon and other world leaders to stay away from Kashmir issue, Pakistan looks clueless and the government's credibility, and particularly the army's, is now at an all-time low.

The Pakistani frustration got further deepened when Prime Minister Modi was conferred with 'Order of Zayed' by the UAE on August 24 at the Presidential Palace in Abu Dhabi amid a glittering ceremony. High on optics, the Indian PM met Sk Mohammad bin Zayed Al Nayhan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces at the Presidential Palace. The decorated PM, on being bestowed with the highest civilian honour, said that the award was a testimony to the growing partnership between India and the UAE and an honour for the entire Indian nation of 1.3 billion people. Such a high profile award from a predominantly Muslim country to an Indian within less than three weeks of Kashmir development remains an eyesore to Pakistan who is visibly failing to exploit its Muslim card to draw support from the Muslim nations.

Crucially, the induction of PM Modi into the Order of Zayed shows the importance UAE places on India ignoring Pak propaganda of bringing Kashmir into sharp focus. Some activists have decried on this award due to PM Modi's 'clampdown' in Kashmir. Samah Hamid, a Beirut-based Human Rights activist, criticised the award by saying, with several gulf states in an ever-tightening embrace with PM Modi, that human rights have been discarded in favour of economic opportunities. Such critics have recently alleged that India has not only escaped international condemnation on Kashmir, but it is also even shoring up support from its Muslim allies. After his UAE visit, Indian PM went to Bahrain receiving tumultuous attention. All these have dealt a strong blow to Pakistan's moves to internationalise Kashmir issue. On the contrary, successful Indian diplomacy is paying dividends to isolate Pakistan. Prime Minister Imran Khan and his Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Quereshi are perhaps right in airing their disappointment and frustration that Muslims the world over stand as a mute spectator on developments linked to Kashmir. There are traces of despair in Pakistan and the anti-India unsavoury rhetorics do not seem to be paying off with regard to Kashmir. There is also pressure on Pakistan from within as it is charged for lacking some essential component in developing robust bilateral ties and it needs to do some soul-searching to re-evaluate its friends and foes.

It would now appear from the happenings in Pakistan, in collaboration with the army, the ISI may possibly be planning to attempt to target India with multiple terror tirades ventilating its anger and frustration after its failure to do anything in the aftermath of restructuring of J&K and Ladakh. There are reports of Afghan Pashtun fighters planning to enter J&K to foment trouble. PoK is also thought to be undergoing a massive recruitment drive for terror strikes in the Valley and adjoining places. Areas opposite Poonch, Keran and Lipa seem vulnerable. Reports also suggest about at least 100 fighters, highly trained by the Pakistani military's Special Services Group (SSG) to target Indian installations in and around Kashmir.

In the meantime, Army Chief, Gen Qamar Ahmad Bajwa's recent rhetoric's expressing army's solidarity with Kashmiris in India speaks about the mal-intent of an army chief who must be buoyant after getting a three-year extension. He must also be trying to prove his bona fide within the military establishment, which can be easily assumed to be under tremendous pressure to 'act' on Kashmir. This looks to be a perilous trend. As it is, unconfirmed reports of disquiet are trickling in about Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and other terror outfits, backed by Pakistan entering southern states of India. This calls for more intensified vigil all over as Pakistan, humiliated and frustrated by lack of support from its handful friends, may venture to resort to terror tactics in the name of vengeance. Its diplomatic options are clearly petering out. It is also on the cards for such extreme actions to divert attention from the dismal internal state of affairs the country is afflicted with. Imran Khan must put his own house in order before indulging in unsavoury outbursts on Kashmir.

(The author is a retired IPS officer, a security analyst and the former National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Mauritius. The views expressed are strictly personal)