An unwelcome augury

It was hoped that the recently held elections in Iraq — the fifth parliamentary polls since the US invaded and occupied Iraq in 2003 — will put the country on a road to recovery from the 18 years of mismanagement and corruption of the ethno-sectarian regime instated by the US.

The election was billed as an opportunity to dislodge sectarian religious parties that have been in power, embroiled with charges of corruption and mismanagement. However, a record low turnout of 41 per cent and religious parties' performance seem to have belied the hopes.

The low turnout in the election for 329-member parliament indicates that Iraqis have lost faith in voting as a means to secure decent governance, security, employment, education etc. There appears to be general apathy. People just don't believe that elections matter, observers say.

Iraq's Shi'ite groups have dominated governments since the US invasion that toppled Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein and catapulted the Shi'ite majority and the Kurds to power.

One of the US' justifications for its second invasion of Iraq in 2003 was that ousting Saddam Hussein and installing a democratic government in the country would promote democracy in other countries in the region as well. However, Iraq teeters on the brink of becoming a failed state and remains far from reaching reconciliation and stability.

America was compelled to withdraw its forces in 2011 but its air force and limited ground forces returned to reinforce the overstretched, poorly trained and ill-maintained Iraqi army in 2014 in the campaign against the militant group Daesh that had seized control of 40 per cent of Iraq. Residual 2,500 US combat troops are expected to pull out by the end of this year.

The final results of the elections held on October 10 are yet to be declared. But initial results from several provinces and the capital Baghdad indicate that firebrand Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's alliance has emerged as the biggest winner with at least 73 seats, up from 54 in the 2018 elections.

The pro-Iranian militia political alliance Al-Fatah under Hadi Al-Amiri suffered unexpected loss as it won just 14 seats, signalling some crucial message by the voters regarding Iran's involvement in Iraq. Amiri was quick to reject the outcome as "fabricated" and made it clear that he would not accept it at any cost. In the last elections, the alliance had emerged as the second largest bloc with 48 seats.

His alliance consists of a number of pro-Iran militias including Asaib Ahl Al-Haq, Badr, Kataib Hizbollah and others — most associated with the Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU) established to fight Daesh. The alliance performed badly in majority Shia regions including Najaf, Karbala and Basra.

These are the same militias that had carried out attacks on the US embassy compound in Baghdad and military bases across the country. Their loss is a setback for Iran, which had gained considerable political and military leverage inside Iraq in recent years because of the PMU.

The PMU is also accused of killing more than 600 protesters during October last year's uprising, and many believe that it has also been involved in the killing of political activists. Thousands of Iraqis had poured into the streets of Baghdad and the country's southern Shia cities and towns to protest against mismanagement and demand an end to the sectarian system of governance.

The protestors had called for an end to Iranian influence in Iraq through proxy militias that are now officially part of Iraq's security forces, only nominally under government control.

Prime Minister Mustafa Kadhimi met the protesters' demand for an early election under a new law that divided Iraq into 83 constituencies, instead of 18, and allowed activists and genuine independents to contest the elections.

The poor performance by Amiri's alliance seems to be the result of PMU's role against the protesters.

The groups associated with PMU are now Iraq's main security challenge and many see their clash with the state as imminent.

Iran's loss was made up by gains registered by the alliance led by former Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki, who is said to be behind the stirring of sectarian violence, human rights violations and mass corruption. His coalition came third with 37 seats.

Sadr's group is just one of the several that will have to enter negotiations to form a coalition capable of dominating parliament and forming a government, a period of jockeying for position that may take weeks or longer. He has increased his power over the Iraqi state since coming first in the 2018 election when his coalition won 54 seats.

The unpredictable populist cleric, who has been a dominant figure, and often a kingmaker, in Iraqi politics since the US invasion, in his victory address, promised a nationalist government free of foreign interference.

He opposes all foreign interference in Iraq, whether by the US, against which he fought an insurgency after 2003, or by neighbouring Iran, accusing it of being closely involved in the internal affairs of Iraq.

The initial results also show that pro-reform candidates who emerged from last year's protests managed to win several seats.

Kurdish parties won 61 seats, including 32 by the Kurdistan Democratic Party that dominates the government of the autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq, and 15 by its rival, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan party. Parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi's Taqaddum coalition won 38 seats.

With no party or groups emerging with sufficient numbers to form a government, the bargaining process will heat up over the post of the prime minister and president. The Kurds whose support is seen vital in the formation of the government are demanding that the next president be one among them.

Iraq needs a stable government that could deal with the problem of poverty, unemployment, corruption, mismanagement and work for rebuilding the war-ravaged and faction-ridden country. Sadr has supported Prime Minister Kadhimi in the past and he may still be the best candidate for the post. Americans would welcome Kadhimi's return as he is their trusted man.

The writer is a former Editor of PTI and served as the West Asia correspondent for the same. Views expressed are personal