A crestfallen Erdogan

President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, seems dejected and in low morale following his party AKP's (Justice and Development Party) outright defeat in the recent (June 23) mayoral elections of Istanbul. His party was convincingly trounced by his chief political adversary party CHP (Republican People's Party) and the winner is Ekrem Imamoglu. It may be recapitulated that earlier on March 31, results were challenged and in the fresh move, the Istanbul electorate rejected the ruling party thus vindicating voters' trust and renewed faith in the opposition.

This opposition victory is surely a personal image-battering for President Erdogan who is always overconfident and complacent on the domestic political challenges threatening him and his poll prospects. Dwelling on the issue more specifically, this time the opposition vote share has also seen an increase of 55 per cent than before registering a distinct hike of 7 per cent.

It is also pertinent to note that the recent Istanbul verdict is significant because one-fifth of the Turkish population lives in Istanbul and this city contributes 30 per cent of the national wealth to the Turkish GDP.

Meanwhile, in midst of marked declining popularity of Erdogan and his party, a number of local political pundits assess that several members of the ruling party AKP had changed allegiance to the CHP. This is possibly due to the hard reality that Erdogan continues to act like a dictator in addressing party dissent as also for his abject failure in tackling multiple domestic issues faced by Turkey.

Mohammad Ayub, Senior Fellow, Centre for Global Policy, Washington D.C. and Distinguished Professor Emeritus of International Relations, Michigan State University, reacting on the Istanbul debacle recently noted that such a trend could possibly be beginning of the end of the semi-authoritarian rule in Turkey. Ayub is not totally off the mark. Erdogan is at new low both in internal politics as well as in the international political market with a deadly beating of his reputation and credibility.

Having failed to capitalise on his self generated overtures to take on the ISIS by playing role of a police inspector, Erdogan is now keeping alive his political future by occasionally articulating and directing his ire against Saudi Arabia for the latter's complicity in killing journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Saudi Consulate, Istanbul, on October 2 last year. He has not stopped flogging the dead horse and even failed to drum up international support or attention on Khashoggi murder. His much-publicised angst against Saudi Arabia, more pointedly accusing Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MbS) for the October 2 assassination when US President Trump gave (June 29) a clean chit to MbS categorically ruling out his role in eliminating Khashoggi. This will add to the woes of Erdogan who is already reeling under a visible shock after the recent Istanbul defeat.

Further, being a staunch Muslim Brotherhood (MB) headliner, Erdogan tried to cash in on the death of another MB adherent, Morsi of Egypt in the aftermath of his death this month. MB followers in Turkey also failed to rise and respond to the call given by Erdogan to hold protests. It would, therefore, seem that Erdogan is failing in all counts and his downhill image is likely to prove very costly in the next elections which are nearly four years away.

Prevailing domestic challenges faced by Turkey under Erdogan are manifold. The economy is not healthy, media remains stifled and Kurds are distinctly alienated. Externally, Turkish diplomacy is going through a bad patch. The US and Canada are at their worst in dealing with Turkey. EU too is indifferent. On the other hand, the US has been effectively countering any Turkish move to target Saudi Arabia to marginalise its role in the region or to neutralise Saudi sponsored Wahabism. In the light of a reinforced US-Saudi relationship, Turkey remains a pariah. Its only friend is perhaps Pakistan as both these countries are not favourably disposed towards India and are on the same page on Kashmir. India need not dread the growing warmth between the two as internationally, India is safely ensconced in the company of major allies and it is not at all friendless.

In the light of Erdogan going down in the eyes of Turkish people, the Turkish armed forces and Erdogan's foe Fetullah Gulen merit close watch as they could emerge as key players even ahead of elections to attempt fishing in the troubled waters. Erdogan had survived attempts of a coup d'état in 2016 and the Istanbul outcome doesn't augur well with his political future.

( The author is a retired IPS officer, a security analyst and a former National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Mauritius. The views expressed are strictly personal)