MillenniumPost
Editorial

Dynamic exit

The first phase of unlockdown is as crucial for the economy as it is for public health. A variety of data available asserts that the lockdown has been a costly exercise. While there is no denying that there has been an exponential rise in Covid-19 caseload, a simultaneously climbing recovery rate instils faith in the decision to retract most of the curbs. More than 8,000 cases were added on Sunday which was the last day of Lockdown 4.0 offering considerable relaxations. At this rate, the daily caseload is set to figure in five digits, especially since chances of contraction are set to increase owing to near-total normalcy being restored. Religious congregations could become hotbeds for contraction owing to a high footfall that they usually witness even if precautions are taken. The mantra of social distancing does exist in everyone's conscience but is still not enthusiastically pursued. Masks would serve as critical instruments to avoid a major chance of virus contraction. With sanitisers tied at every nook and corner of public places and circles marked on ground outside temples, shops, offices, etc., a general sense of taking precautions would be promoted. Most importantly, as people return to work, the economic wheel will start rotating while a strong vigil on the virus continues. June in this regard would serve as a crucial month to take stock of the functioning economy amid a pandemic. Cluster specific restrictions will continue in hotspots but the wide-scale economic resumption nevertheless appears to be a better way forward as far as this pandemic is concerned. This is corroborated by CMIE's analysis that the covid-induced lockdown pushed 122 million into unemployment in April coupled with the large-scale reverse migration that the country witnessed in two months and continuing. June could also be a month to usher in novel reforms that the Centre may have deliberated upon during the long discussions over the calibrated exit for the nation from the lockdown. It remains uncertain how much distance we have covered in this pandemic crisis — quarter, halfway, three-fourth — and so the prudent step would be to continue ramping up testing numbers, especially of states that fare poorly in this context.

The past week lodged nearly 49,000 cases and more than 1,300 deaths — a grim reminder that the battle against the pandemic is far from over. But the economic shock is also real and unlocking the nation must quickly reroute attention towards a comprehensive recovery. The latest NSO figures for the January to March quarter barely include the Covid-impact and even that figure is disheartening. It only shows that the successive quarter figures could be devastating and this calls for extensive measures to undo the damage done in these months. While implementing all measures theorised to help the Indian economy recover from the Covid-19 shock might not be in the implementation stage immediately, an action plan to put in place from the next phase of unlockdown, say July, should be drawn in the meantime. Data remains a crucial factor in measuring our future response. This calls for the extensive collation of varied data that can help track both the infection and the impact it continues to have in our society. A dynamic regime — of the kind that imposed or relaxed curbs as per requirement — ought to be ideally extended in terms of economy and public health for the coming weeks. It would be prudent on account of all states to constitute special panels of experts to aid in decision-making. It is not a matter of undermining an elected government's competency but rather an hour for concerted effort to fight an unprecedented situation with all capable hands on board. We cannot prevent the rise in cases but we can cure the infected and nurse the economy back to health with full vigour.

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