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Delhi

Fickle Delhi voters keep parties, pollsters guessing

The major political parties — Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress — have been upbeat on their prospects in the upcoming Municipal Corporation elections but it is the unpredictable nature of the Capital voters, that has kept the political analysts guessing.

The voting trend in Delhi has always been a matter of debate as it has time and again sprung surprises. The Assembly polls of 1998, 2013 and 2015 are striking examples of the fact that the Delhi mandate has always bucked the trend.

Looking at the reviews of Delhi voters in the last 23 years, Delhi voted for the 16th time in the last Assembly poll in Feb, 2015. That's an election almost every 16 months. Starting 1993, when Delhi Assembly was constituted, there have been six assembly elections 1993, 1998, 2003, 2008, 2013 and 2015, six Lok Sabha Polls 1996, 1998, 1999, 2004, 2009 and four Municipal Corporation elections — 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2012.

Post Babri Mosque demolition, in the first Delhi Assembly polls in 1993, BJP emerged victorious with overwhelming majority under the leadership of Madan Lal Khurana but in 1998, in the second Assembly election, BJP was decimated in the tsunami of soaring onion prices and the Congress scored a stunning victory under
Sheila Dikshit.

Undoubtedly, between 1993 and 1999, voters favoured the rising BJP. BJP had not only won 1993 Assembly election but fared well in Lok Sabha elections in 1996, 1998 and 1999. The BJP won the Delhi civic polls in 1997 but the next election in 2002, saw Delhi reject BJP and Congress came to power under the leadership of late Ram Babu Sharma.

In 2003 Delhi Assembly polls, Delhi again reposed faith in Sheila Dikshit and gave her a resounding majority. But that wasn't the end of the story for Congress as in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the national Capital went with Congress once more, giving them a staggering 55 percent voteshare with 6 MPs out of 7.
Just three years later, in 2007, Delhi voted BJP back into the corporation and did the same in 2012 as well; all this while Congress was at the helm in the Centre as well as Delhi.

In the 2008 Delhi Assembly polls,the Sheila -led Congress scored a hattrick of wins. In May 2009, the Congress returned with a stunning majority in Lok Sabha elections where the party garnered 57 percent votes. All Congress MP candidates got elected from Delhi.

At that time, the city Congress MPs , who made a clean sweep of the state in 2009 Lok Sabha polls, were not ready to give Sheila Dikshit the credit for Delhi Metro, the Airport and regularisation of unauthorised colonies — decisions that were made by the central government.

The BJP won the 2012 civic polls, whereas former Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit took the initiative in 2012 to trifurcate the Municipal Corporation of Delhi into North (NDMC), South (SDMC) and East Municipal Corporation (EDMC). After the first trifurcation, BJP swept all three civic bodies.

Barely one year after the formation of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the party won a impressive 28 out of the 70 Assembly seats in November 2013. AAP's result stopped BJP from gaining a majority ( it won 32 seats) in an election that saw the three-time Congress CM Sheila Dikshit being toppled. The Congress came down from 43 to 8 seats.

From the 2013 Assembly polls and the 2014 Lok Sabha elections to the Assembly polls in 2015, the Congress vote bank dwindled drastically , while the AAP numbers grew considerably . Congress could not win even a single seat in the 2015 polls, while BJP numbers came down from from 32 to 3 seats in the Delhi Assembly.

With the stunning victory in the mid-term polls in 2015, riding against the Modi wave and driven by its anti-corruption poll plank, the AAP made an electrifying appearance on the political horizon of Delhi by winning 67 seats out of 70 Delhi Assembly polls. The Congress and BJP both cut a sorry figure.
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