BJP’s hopes rest on ensuing assembly elections
8 April 2015 12:09 AM GMT
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has gone on to adopt a practical approach; keeping in view the Sisyphean struggle it had to undertake in getting a few crucial bills passed in the Rajya Sabha. The BJP-led government also had to face embarrassment during the debate on the thanks motion of the Presidential address and it got through with an amendment put forward by an opposition member, rare in parliamentary history. It is clear that the NDA is facing difficulties in the Upper House.
Given this it would perhaps like to chalk out an effective strategy for the forthcoming assembly elections in five states: Bihar, Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. These states have a combined strength of 1046 elected legislators. Moreover these states together send 155 members to the Lok Sabha and 66 members to the Rajya Sabha. The first state to go to polls this year is Bihar; whereas the other four states will be electing their representatives only in May 2016. The NDA will try to win the maximum number of seats in Bihar and Assam as it has little at stake in the other three states.
It is understood that BJP president Amit Shah is obsessed with this matter and would like to formulate fool proof plan to secure a comfortable majority for his party in two states. Victory in both states will prepare a solid foundation to increase the party’s numbers in the Rajya Sabha. Shah will have to take all possible precautions in avoiding a Delhi-like defeat and ensuring a Haryana-like win, where the BJP raised its tally from just 4 to 47. After its utter debacle in Delhi, the BJP is scared of all upcoming elections as the government at the Centre has yet to present a credible result sheet.
The BJP was once a force to reckon with in Bihar. It further gained ground and expanded while in an alliance with the Samata Party/Janata Dal (United). The saffron party used the state as a laboratory for politically contentious issues. In the 243-member assembly the BJP scored 91 seats, securing 16.49 per cent of the total votes. The party’s then alliance partner won 115 seats with 22.58 per cent of votes cast in the 2010 Vidhan Sabha elections. Much water has flown in the Ganges after Nitish Kumar walked away from the NDA alliance when Modi’s name was about to be announced as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate.
Post the breakup of the alliance in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the JD (U) suffered substantially, as it could win only two seats with a miniscule share of 16.04 per cent votes, whereas BJP emerged victorious in 22 seats with 29.86 per cent vote share. The tsunami generated by the ‘Modi wave’ helped the BJP in acquiring the highest number of seats and highest percentage of votes cast. The BJP and its allies ended up bagging 32 out of 40 seats. Nitish Kumar, who was left shattered by the results, had no other option but to resign as chief minister. Of late, however, he has managed to wrest control from previous incumbent Jitan Ram Manjhi.
The BJP might have taken stock of the rhetoric by its leaders, including ghar wapsi and communal verbal blasts, while chalking out its election strategy. The NDA does not seem to be worried about the much talked merger of Janta Parivar either. These merging parties have not been able to assess the quantum of gain and loss. The alliance is not likely to be smooth at the ground level. Hence, the division of votes would continue to damage non-NDA parties. It is for the BJP to play the right cards in order to emerge as the winner in the next Assembly elections.
The Assembly poll in Assam is due in May 2016. The BJP is looking optimistic as it secured 7 out of 14 Lok Sabha seats in the 2014 general elections with a vote share of 36.86 per cent against a vote share of 11.47 per cent. The BJP would have to adopt a cautious approach, along with micro-level planning, to enable it to be in a winnable position like Haryana. A lot of work remains to be done.
Given this it would perhaps like to chalk out an effective strategy for the forthcoming assembly elections in five states: Bihar, Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. These states have a combined strength of 1046 elected legislators. Moreover these states together send 155 members to the Lok Sabha and 66 members to the Rajya Sabha. The first state to go to polls this year is Bihar; whereas the other four states will be electing their representatives only in May 2016. The NDA will try to win the maximum number of seats in Bihar and Assam as it has little at stake in the other three states.
It is understood that BJP president Amit Shah is obsessed with this matter and would like to formulate fool proof plan to secure a comfortable majority for his party in two states. Victory in both states will prepare a solid foundation to increase the party’s numbers in the Rajya Sabha. Shah will have to take all possible precautions in avoiding a Delhi-like defeat and ensuring a Haryana-like win, where the BJP raised its tally from just 4 to 47. After its utter debacle in Delhi, the BJP is scared of all upcoming elections as the government at the Centre has yet to present a credible result sheet.
The BJP was once a force to reckon with in Bihar. It further gained ground and expanded while in an alliance with the Samata Party/Janata Dal (United). The saffron party used the state as a laboratory for politically contentious issues. In the 243-member assembly the BJP scored 91 seats, securing 16.49 per cent of the total votes. The party’s then alliance partner won 115 seats with 22.58 per cent of votes cast in the 2010 Vidhan Sabha elections. Much water has flown in the Ganges after Nitish Kumar walked away from the NDA alliance when Modi’s name was about to be announced as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate.
Post the breakup of the alliance in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the JD (U) suffered substantially, as it could win only two seats with a miniscule share of 16.04 per cent votes, whereas BJP emerged victorious in 22 seats with 29.86 per cent vote share. The tsunami generated by the ‘Modi wave’ helped the BJP in acquiring the highest number of seats and highest percentage of votes cast. The BJP and its allies ended up bagging 32 out of 40 seats. Nitish Kumar, who was left shattered by the results, had no other option but to resign as chief minister. Of late, however, he has managed to wrest control from previous incumbent Jitan Ram Manjhi.
The BJP might have taken stock of the rhetoric by its leaders, including ghar wapsi and communal verbal blasts, while chalking out its election strategy. The NDA does not seem to be worried about the much talked merger of Janta Parivar either. These merging parties have not been able to assess the quantum of gain and loss. The alliance is not likely to be smooth at the ground level. Hence, the division of votes would continue to damage non-NDA parties. It is for the BJP to play the right cards in order to emerge as the winner in the next Assembly elections.
The Assembly poll in Assam is due in May 2016. The BJP is looking optimistic as it secured 7 out of 14 Lok Sabha seats in the 2014 general elections with a vote share of 36.86 per cent against a vote share of 11.47 per cent. The BJP would have to adopt a cautious approach, along with micro-level planning, to enable it to be in a winnable position like Haryana. A lot of work remains to be done.
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