BJP braces up for by-polls in Uttar Pradesh, after Lok Sabha elections success

With the principal opposition party Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) not participating in the by-polls, the main contest will be between Samajwadi Party and BJP. Though, Congress has fielded its candidates in all the constituencies, but Sonia Gandhi-headed party is in contest only in Noida assembly seat. The fate of SP is at stake in Mainpuri parliamentary seat, while the BJP’s fate will be at stake in all the 11 assembly seats.

Mainpuri, which is considered the family seat of SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav, will see the SP chief’s nephew Tejpratap Singh Yadav contest from here, while BJP has fielded Prem Singh Shakya from Mulayam’s home turf. Since BSP and Congress have not fielded their candidates, the fight for Mainpuri seat is between SP and BJP. The seat with about 15 electorates is a Yadav-dominated parliamentary seat. There are about 4 lakh Yadav voters, 2.75 lakh Dalit voters and about 2 lakh Shakya voters in the constituency. Also, the chances of division of secular votes are lesser as BSP and Congress are not in the race, but the dalit votes will play a decisive role. 

The by-polls on 11 assembly seats in the state have become the question of honour for BJP as all these seats were occupied by the party. So losing even a single will cost dearer to the party. It will give a message that BJP is losing its ground in the state. BJP has announced its candidate for 10 seats, while SP has declared the name of candidates from all 11 seats. The principal opposition BSP is not contesting assembly by-poll. The by-election is very crucial for BJP in the context of political identity of the party as the saffron party has won all the Lok Sabha seats under these assembly segments.

The fight in Noida is a triangular contest among BJP, SP and Congress. BJP has fielded Bimla Batham, while Rajendra Awana is holding the Congress flag and Kajal Sharma is the SP candidate for Noida assembly by-poll. Kajal is the wife of Guddu Pandit, a two-time sitting MLA from Dibai in Bulandshahr. Guddu hails from Gijhod village in Noida. His brother Mukesh Pandit is also a sitting MLA from 

Shikarpur in Bulandshahr.

In Noida assembly seat, the votes of Brahmins, Gujjars, Jaats, Thakurs and Dalits are almost in equal number. 

Former MLA Sanjay Garg is the SP nominee for the Saharanpur City assembly seat, while BJP is banking upon Rajiv Gumber to win this seat. For Bijnor assembly seat, Rani Ruchibira is SP candidate against BJP’s Devendrapal Singh.

Samajwadi Party is relying on Nawab Jaan Khan to win Thakurdwara assembly a seat, while BJP’s Rajpal Chauhan is set to give tough contest. 

There will be a straight fight between SP’s Juhi Singh and BJP’s Gopal Tandon in Lucknow East assembly seat by-poll, while Yadav’s party has fielded its former MLA Vachaspati Pasi from Sirathu assembly seat. The BJP has given the ticket to Santosh Patel to retain the seat. SP’s Kaptan Singh Rajput and BJP’s Geeta Singh are in the fray to win the Charkhari assembly seat. The fight is between SP’s Krishna Gopal Patel and BJP’s Rajkumar Verma for Nighasan Vidhan Sabha seat. 

The prestige of BJP is at stake in Rohaniya assembly, which is a part of prime minister Narendra Modi’s Varanasi Lok Sabha seat. BJP’s national president Amit Shah has issued special directions to party cadres to secure win on this seat. As there are 18 candidates in the fray from this seat, the main fight is between Apna Dal and SP’s candidate Mahendra Singh Patel. 

There is direct contest between BJP and SP in all these assembly seats. Both the parties have selected candidates keeping in mind the caste line.

It seems the absence of BSP will prove a boon for BJP as the chances are very less that the Dalit voters will cast votes in favour of SP. Notably, despite the wave being in favour of BJP, there was no effect on the vote share of SP during Lok Sabha polls. Just one per cent votes of  SP had dropped in the general polls. In the assembly by-poll, the mandate of BJP is at stake, not of SP. If SP wrests some seats from BJP, it will boost the morale of party workers.